Oh, this is interesting. I noticed that I totally forgot to take a look at e2 and now that you have shown me the move I feel like that's most probably the one winning move which is funny, because it was indeed absolutely coincidental that I forgot to analyse e2 and never really took a look at it.
Ok, so maybe this is a good time to explain what I was actually doing the whole time. I was mostly trying to categorize all moves (sacrificing and chain building moves not included) into two different groups and this is how I classified them:
Group 1 contains: a8, c10, d11, j9 from the top area and d1, f1, h1 from the bottom area.
Group 2 contains: b9, b11 from the top area and a2, c2 and i2 from the bottom area.
and then I had a leftover group for everything else:
Leftover-Group contains: e10, g2, f11, g10, h11, i10, j11, k2 and I would have put e2 into it as well if I hadn't overlooked it.
So my theory was that if 17th move was from Group 1 then the 18th move had to be from Group 1 as well, but from the other area, so if you look at all these counters to the moves I have tried to prove wrong then you will see they are all from the same group as the move they counter, e.g. I wrote "f1 -> j9 // f1 prevents a2/c2/i2 which is why j9 should win" and f1 and j9 are from the same group.
The one exception where I didn't do that was b9. b9 and j9 are not from the same group so I'm not really surprised that this is the one move I've failed to disprove correctly. Now the reason why I didn't choose a counter from the same group as b9 was that 17.c2 18.b9 was winning for player 1 (see post 3) and this kinda confused me and then I went crazy trying other things not related to my theory so somehow I chose 18.j9 to counter it. The reason why I chose j9 was that I wanted to neutralize the effect of b9 (and yes there was no reason to do that, but I did it anyways since I went crazy as mentioned). After 17.b9 18.j9 there is the moves c10/d11 and e10 which determine the "nim-type" and c10/d11 are from Group 1 while e10 is in that position from Group 2 so we still have that decision of "from what Group do we want to play a move in the top" just like before 17.b9 — and that's actually the trait of the moves from the Leftover-Group too: after playing a move from the Leftover-Group there's still moves from both Groups playable. Well anyways, after 17.b9 18.j9 we get a kind of similar position as the one before those two moves and you just told me that 19.e2 is winning here so I think you kind of served me the solution on a silver platter since that makes it most likely that e2 is also winning in the position with 16 moves.
Ok, so I said I would put e2 into the Leftover-Group and as I mentioned before the trait of the moves from the Leftover group was that you could still play moves from both Groups afterwards. After 17.e2 you can play 18.i2 which is from group 2, but you can also play f1 which is a move from group 1, so that's why I would've put it into the leftover group. Based on that I would try to counter e2 with e10 since it's also from the leftover-group but after playing it out you kind of notice that it's not quite working:
http://www.trmph.com/dnb/board#5,f5d5f7h7g4e8e6g6k4j5k6c8d3h9k8h3b5e2e10f11h11j9j11k2c2d1b1
Player 2 has to play the determining move here and loses.
So yeah, that Leftover-group doesn't seem to work that well since it seems there is many moves that don't fit in group 1 or 2 but are still very different from each other. I already knew this though: my not-on-math-but-visual-traits-based approach to nim sucks when it comes to regions with higher nimvalues :D.
And now I would be very embaressed if 17.e2 is not the winning move after all. xD