When will littlegolem reach 2,000,000 games?

LG is over 1,900,000 games played, try to guess on which we will play the 2 millionth game ?

My guess is on 2nd of October 2018.

2018-08-08 08:08:08 my guess for start time of game 2 000 000

2017-06-05 05:06:20.17

2017-06-05 is in the past

Should we agree on a limit date to post answers?

I propose 2018-02-28 23:59:59 as this limit date.

Also maybe we should not accept manipulation by creating tons of new games on proposed date.

Or we could go until last second with a rating system giving more points for earlier answers depending on both distance to correct answer and distance in time for the prediction ?

I don't know what the right formula for this point system would be. It seems like exponentially harder to give accurate prediction in advance, but maybe some estimators become precise after a few months of data and the months left until final time do not matter too much ?

My guess is 2018

Oh so another parameter to take into account for the rating formula is the precision of the guessing date ;)

WHAT?!

Okay okay, i'm changing my guess. I have done all the maths. the last 100k games took 14 months. Given that there is only 90k to go it has to be approximately in 14*0.9=12.6 months. My guess is christmas 2018.

234.2 games a day?

I haven't seen that on last days...

Einstein 1-point has a pretty active scene, huh? ;)

70k-

prediction: 2018-08-16

TIMELIMIT WAS 2018-02-28 23:59:59

UR LATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!

I propose the limit be extended ;)

OK request granted, you have until 2018-03-31 23:59:59

And I change my prediction to 2018-12-05

Current predictions:

2018-06-05 05:06:20.18: mmKall ? on 2017-12-12

2018-08-16: Ypercube on 2018-03-01

2018-12-05: Carroll on 2018-03-02

2018-12-25: Purgency on2017-12-12

There is still room for improvement...

Also 2018-08-08 08:08:08 by The_Burglar

Yes sorry

cheers the super 8 is sure to win mate

2019-01-09 01:01:09

It would be cool to continue to play near the time when it reaches 2M.

Anyone can come up with a rating formula giving more points to earlier predictions and accepting late predictions with less points when we approach the certainty?

1940258 games just 59742 more too goo

Where did you get that number? When I open the LG homepage I get a smaller number:1,936,963   Games

I guess The_Burglar referred to the game with highest game_id and forgot that there have been some gaps in the id sequence.

I propose as the score sqrt(days between date estimate issued and date of estimate) - (days between date of estimate and date of actual).

yes got it now 1,937,249 games

g -62751

I accept Bill's proposition to have an inverse square law for predictions errors, with this law, here are the prediction budgets (in days) for each prediction received:

-  mmKall for2018-06-05 05:06:20.1: 13.23

-Ypercube for2018-08-16: 12.96

-Carroll for 2018-12-05: 16.67

-Purgency for2018-12-25: 19.44

-The_Burglar for2018-08-08 08:08:08: 15.49

The error in days will be subtracted from this prediction budget to get a score.

So my prediction error has to be less than 19.44 in order for me to beat the dude that leaves his estimate on the very day that the gamecount hits 2 million, hence finishing with a score of 0?

Yep.  I was assuming that at least one one competitor would get a score greater than zero.  This system is probably not optimal for determining 2nd place, etc.  Perhaps for second place finisher, the formula should double the bonus (meaning that you'd only need to be within 38.88 to beat that player).

Well, some theoretical work to backup formulas, constants would be nice.

I think the distribution of games played through time can be estimated.

The mean is easy, I have not tried to compute the standard deviation.

Knowing these figures we can compute how far an estimate may lie from the real date, 3 days before or ten days before or now and so change the bonus coefficient so that it is not way easier to get a positive score just the day before it reaches 2M...

As the distribution of games through time is a Poisson law (of varying parameter lambda, depending on new tournaments...), both the mean and the variance are lambda...

The probability distribution with Poisson l law that n games have been played on day t is given by the formula:

p = l.exp(-l.t)(l.t)^(n-1)/(n-1)! which is a Gamma law.

With my estimate of l, that yields a 95% confidence that it is between d-27 and d+27, with d best estimated date.

So the current budget is too low and I accept to multiply by 2:

mmKall for 2018-06-05 05:06:20.1: 26.46

Ypercube for 2018-08-16: 25.92

Carroll for  2018-12-05: 33.33

Purgency for 2018-12-25: 38.88

The_Burglar for2018-08-08 08:08:08: 30.98

60K to go.

early congratulations to us all

-58k and counting

Looks like 2018-06-05 05:06:20.1 might not be the winning date, but perhaps if I create lots of accounts and games...

;)

Yes you can try this, as my prediction won't be reached either...

-56k+

55k-

???

53k

gamesorrys guess of 2019-01-09 01:01:09 is the clear winning candidate right now

Thanks for reminding me of Gamesorry,

So the current day budget is ( 2*sqrt(delta)).

The final score will be |budget minus prediction error|

mmKall for 2018-06-05 05:06:20.1: 26.46

Ypercube for 2018-08-16: 25.92

Carroll for  2018-12-05: 33.33

Purgency for 2018-12-25: 38.88

The_Burglar for2018-08-08 08:08:08: 30.98

Gamesorry for 2019-01-09 01:01:09 on2018-03-02: 35.38

Hopefully everyone (or most) will play all (or most) tournaments in August to celebrate the roman empire

51k to go!

50K

49k

48k exactly to go

i'm changing my guess to 2019-02-01