amzn.ch.30.1.1 predictions

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
I've been requested to follow amzn.ch.30.1.1 by RoRoRo the Bot

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page .
\* Already completed matches:

Games completed: 0/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | JJ10 | 2118 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 40.09% | 1.72% | 4.92% |
| 2 | bennok | 1837 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.62% | 0.12% | 78.90% |
| 3 | celticjim | 1852 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.80% | 0.12% | 75.35% |
| 4 | Arrow2_bot | 1855 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.71% | 0.14% | 74.81% |
| 5 | Orbilin | 1877 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.17% | 0.23% | 68.72% |
| 6 | p_a_k_o | 1957 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 5.40% | 0.65% | 40.90% |
| 7 | cutecat | 1976 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 7.09% | 0.80% | 34.54% |
| 8 | mungo | 1982 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 7.82% | 0.79% | 32.48% |
| 9 | Kisoul | 2098 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 32.87% | 1.69% | 7.72% |
| 10 | FatPhil | 1833 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.48% | 0.10% | 81.64% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Arrow2_bot 2 - 0 Kisoul <--- major upset!

Games completed: 1/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1880 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 4.38% | 0.65% | 45.99% |
| 2 | FatPhil | 1833 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.68% | 0.14% | 82.00% |
| 3 | JJ10 | 2118 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 47.91% | 2.08% | 5.70% |
| 4 | mungo | 1982 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 9.49% | 0.97% | 33.72% |
| 5 | cutecat | 1976 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 8.81% | 0.97% | 36.08% |
| 6 | p_a_k_o | 1957 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 6.73% | 0.80% | 42.55% |
| 7 | Orbilin | 1877 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.55% | 0.25% | 71.87% |
| 8 | celticjim | 1857 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.10% | 0.23% | 77.36% |
| 9 | bennok | 1837 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.71% | 0.14% | 82.40% |
| 10 | Kisoul | 2073 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 15.01% | 1.41% | 22.34% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* mungo 2 - 0 Kisoul

Games completed: 2/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | mungo | 2002 | - | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 21.64% | 1.72% | 13.70% |
| 2 | Arrow2_bot | 1880 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 4.03% | 0.57% | 48.37% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2053 | *0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 3.63% | 0.72% | 40.64% |
| 4 | cutecat | 1976 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 8.97% | 0.90% | 35.45% |
| 5 | p_a_k_o | 1957 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 6.84% | 0.78% | 42.40% |
| 6 | Orbilin | 1877 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.64% | 0.27% | 70.81% |
| 7 | bennok | 1837 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.66% | 0.12% | 81.98% |
| 8 | FatPhil | 1833 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.68% | 0.13% | 82.74% |
| 9 | celticjim | 1857 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.10% | 0.20% | 77.55% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 2118 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 47.24% | 2.09% | 6.37% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Kisoul 0 - 2 celticjim <--- upset!

Games completed: 3/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1880 | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 3.87% | 0.56% | 49.84% |
| 2 | celticjim | 1881 | _ | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 3.77% | 0.52% | 49.76% |
| 3 | mungo | 2002 | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 20.77% | 1.40% | 15.53% |
| 4 | bennok | 1837 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.76% | 0.13% | 79.96% |
| 5 | Kisoul | 2029 | 0 | *0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.44% | 0.20% | 69.23% |
| 6 | cutecat | 1976 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 9.27% | 0.93% | 35.34% |
| 7 | p_a_k_o | 1957 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 6.81% | 0.82% | 41.81% |
| 8 | Orbilin | 1877 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.78% | 0.26% | 70.39% |
| 9 | JJ10 | 2118 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 48.54% | 2.02% | 5.91% |
| 10 | FatPhil | 1833 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.69% | 0.13% | 82.23% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* FatPhil 0 - 2 Arrow2_bot

Games completed: 4/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1893 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6.13% | 0.89% | 35.46% |
| 2 | mungo | 2002 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20.35% | 1.56% | 14.80% |
| 3 | celticjim | 1864 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.84% | 0.46% | 55.75% |
| 4 | bennok | 1837 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.74% | 0.17% | 80.42% |
| 5 | cutecat | 1976 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 9.07% | 0.94% | 34.49% |
| 6 | p_a_k_o | 1957 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 6.96% | 0.76% | 40.99% |
| 7 | Orbilin | 1877 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.73% | 0.33% | 69.74% |
| 8 | JJ10 | 2118 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 48.15% | 2.05% | 5.85% |
| 9 | FatPhil | 1820 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.20% | 0.05% | 91.06% |
| 10 | Kisoul | 2029 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.34% | 0.18% | 71.45% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Good luck to everyone playing in the championship. I don't have as much time as I thought I would have so I am going to resign my games.

That's a shame. Thanks for being fair and equal about it.

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* JJ10 0 - 2 bennok
\* bennok 0 - 2 Kisoul
\* JJ10 0 - 2 Arrow2_bot
\* cutecat 2 - 0 JJ10
\* Kisoul 2 - 0 JJ10
\* FatPhil 2 - 0 JJ10
\* JJ10 0 - 2 p_a_k_o
\* JJ10 0 - 2 mungo
\* Orbilin 2 - 0 JJ10
\* celticjim 2 - 0 JJ10

Games completed: 14/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1911 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | 6 | 12 | 14.37% | 1.60% | 21.71% |
| 2 | mungo | 2013 | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 4 | 8 | 35.30% | 2.32% | 9.09% |
| 3 | celticjim | 1914 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 4 | 8 | 11.40% | 1.36% | 29.89% |
| 4 | Kisoul | 2056 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | *2 | 4 | 4 | 0.22% | 0.29% | 52.11% |
| 5 | Orbilin | 1891 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 3.81% | 0.68% | 58.74% |
| 6 | p_a_k_o | 1975 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 13.51% | 1.50% | 31.22% |
| 7 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 15.43% | 1.60% | 28.99% |
| 8 | bennok | 1847 | _ | _ | _ | *0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 1.18% | 0.28% | 78.75% |
| 9 | FatPhil | 1814 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0.32% | 0.12% | 89.49% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Sad to see the reigning champion resign all games. Hope you will be back for the next championship!

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* mungo 2 - 0 Arrow2_bot

Games completed: 15/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | mungo | 2024 | - | *2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 20 | 48.47% | 2.56% | 3.45% |
| 2 | Arrow2_bot | 1900 | *0 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 4.58% | 0.88% | 32.07% |
| 3 | celticjim | 1914 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10.39% | 1.19% | 29.29% |
| 4 | Kisoul | 2056 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.20% | 0.26% | 51.46% |
| 5 | Orbilin | 1891 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3.75% | 0.60% | 58.19% |
| 6 | p_a_k_o | 1975 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12.60% | 1.37% | 30.62% |
| 7 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.59% | 1.46% | 28.16% |
| 8 | bennok | 1847 | _ | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.04% | 0.24% | 78.56% |
| 9 | FatPhil | 1820 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.37% | 0.14% | 88.19% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Arrow2_bot 2 - 0 Orbilin

Games completed: 16/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1915 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | *2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 8.31% | 1.26% | 14.97% |
| 2 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 24 | 50.11% | 2.48% | 2.84% |
| 3 | celticjim | 1893 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 8 | 7.84% | 0.98% | 33.90% |
| 4 | Kisoul | 2056 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.11% | 0.17% | 51.39% |
| 5 | Orbilin | 1876 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.99% | 0.26% | 75.34% |
| 6 | p_a_k_o | 1975 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12.94% | 1.36% | 29.20% |
| 7 | bennok | 1847 | _ | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.04% | 0.25% | 77.21% |
| 8 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.59% | 1.55% | 27.29% |
| 9 | FatPhil | 1820 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.25% | 0.08% | 87.85% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* p_a_k_o 0 - 2 Arrow2_bot

Games completed: 17/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1933 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | *2 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 18.12% | 2.03% | 2.31% |
| 2 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 28 | 52.15% | 2.52% | 2.06% |
| 3 | celticjim | 1878 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6.51% | 0.91% | 35.44% |
| 4 | Kisoul | 2056 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.04% | 0.10% | 49.76% |
| 5 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.56% | 1.40% | 24.17% |
| 6 | FatPhil | 1820 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.21% | 0.09% | 86.14% |
| 7 | bennok | 1847 | _ | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.12% | 0.26% | 75.56% |
| 8 | Orbilin | 1876 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.58% | 0.26% | 74.69% |
| 9 | p_a_k_o | 1957 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.87% | 0.80% | 49.87% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* bennok 0 - 2 celticjim

Games completed: 18/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1933 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 17.38% | 2.00% | 1.79% |
| 2 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 28 | 50.63% | 2.42% | 2.11% |
| 3 | celticjim | 1892 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 12 | 10.35% | 1.22% | 21.07% |
| 4 | Kisoul | 2056 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.02% | 0.06% | 52.85% |
| 5 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.08% | 1.32% | 23.61% |
| 6 | Orbilin | 1876 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.60% | 0.18% | 74.20% |
| 7 | bennok | 1833 | _ | _ | *0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.18% | 0.06% | 88.50% |
| 8 | FatPhil | 1820 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.18% | 0.09% | 86.35% |
| 9 | p_a_k_o | 1957 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.87% | 0.76% | 49.52% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* celticjim 2 - 0 p_a_k_o

Games completed: 19/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1933 | - | _ | 0 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 15.32% | 1.45% | 1.77% |
| 2 | celticjim | 1910 | _ | - | _ | 2 | *2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 8 | 16 | 19.26% | 1.57% | 6.46% |
| 3 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 28 | 48.08% | 2.16% | 1.79% |
| 4 | Kisoul | 2056 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 50.09% |
| 5 | p_a_k_o | 1939 | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.15% | 0.11% | 71.07% |
| 6 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13.12% | 1.30% | 22.17% |
| 7 | FatPhil | 1820 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.17% | 0.11% | 85.22% |
| 8 | bennok | 1833 | _ | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.11% | 0.05% | 88.14% |
| 9 | Orbilin | 1876 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.65% | 0.18% | 73.29% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Orbilin 0 - 2 celticjim
\* p_a_k_o 0 - 2 Kisoul
\* Arrow2_bot 2 - 0 bennok
\* Kisoul 2 - 0 FatPhil

Games completed: 23/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1944 | - | _ | 2 | 0 | *2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 18.89% | 1.32% | 0.05% |
| 2 | celticjim | 1905 | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | *2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 10 | 28 | 21.13% | 1.68% | 1.26% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2072 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | _ | *2 | _ | *2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0.00% | 21.98% |
| 4 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 40 | 45.75% | 1.73% | 1.27% |
| 5 | bennok | 1822 | *0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.14% |
| 6 | Orbilin | 1861 | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 86.85% |
| 7 | p_a_k_o | 1929 | 0 | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83.48% |
| 8 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11.75% | 1.15% | 19.72% |
| 9 | FatPhil | 1814 | 0 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.03% | 0.02% | 90.25% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* celticjim 0 - 2 Arrow2_bot

Games completed: 24/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1958 | - | *2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 52 | 34.35% | 1.85% | 0 |
| 2 | celticjim | 1894 | *0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 28 | 4.78% | 1.63% | 2.56% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2072 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 21.49% |
| 4 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 44 | 46.23% | 1.87% | 1.22% |
| 5 | p_a_k_o | 1929 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83.05% |
| 6 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12.08% | 0.97% | 19.04% |
| 7 | Orbilin | 1861 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 87.18% |
| 8 | bennok | 1822 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.63% |
| 9 | FatPhil | 1814 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.02% | 89.81% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Kisoul 2 - 0 Orbilin

Games completed: 25/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1958 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 14 | 56 | 33.57% | 1.97% | 0 |
| 2 | celticjim | 1899 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 32 | 5.06% | 1.74% | 2.38% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2079 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 13.05% |
| 4 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 48 | 46.81% | 1.92% | 1.15% |
| 5 | FatPhil | 1814 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 89.88% |
| 6 | bennok | 1822 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.65% |
| 7 | Orbilin | 1854 | 0 | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.45% |
| 8 | p_a_k_o | 1929 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84.37% |
| 9 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11.97% | 0.96% | 20.07% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Orbilin 0 - 2 p_a_k_o

Games completed: 26/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1958 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 14 | 60 | 33.00% | 1.71% | 0 |
| 2 | celticjim | 1861 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 36 | 3.60% | 1.37% | 3.36% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2079 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 14.92% |
| 4 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 48 | 48.51% | 1.72% | 1.13% |
| 5 | p_a_k_o | 1941 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.80% |
| 6 | FatPhil | 1814 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 89.86% |
| 7 | bennok | 1822 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.18% |
| 8 | Orbilin | 1842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.16% |
| 9 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12.53% | 1.02% | 20.59% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* bennok 2 - 0 Orbilin

Games completed: 27/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1958 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 33.26% | 1.83% | 0 |
| 2 | celticjim | 1861 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 3.58% | 1.49% | 3.47% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2079 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 15.72% |
| 4 | mungo | 2024 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 48 | 48.42% | 1.73% | 1.21% |
| 5 | bennok | 1838 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 91.64% |
| 6 | p_a_k_o | 1941 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 77.38% |
| 7 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12.31% | 0.99% | 20.57% |
| 8 | FatPhil | 1814 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.03% | 90.24% |
| 9 | Orbilin | 1826 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | *0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.76% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* FatPhil 0 - 2 mungo

Games completed: 28/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1958 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 25.35% | 1.49% | 0 |
| 2 | celticjim | 1817 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 2.38% | 1.04% | 2.73% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2079 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 15.28% |
| 4 | mungo | 2031 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 52 | 58.39% | 1.56% | 0.31% |
| 5 | bennok | 1838 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 91.64% |
| 6 | p_a_k_o | 1941 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 76.46% |
| 7 | FatPhil | 1807 | 0 | _ | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.87% |
| 8 | cutecat | 1985 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11.87% | 0.96% | 18.97% |
| 9 | Orbilin | 1826 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.73% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Arrow2_bot 2 - 0 cutecat

Games completed: 29/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1975 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 68 | 46.56% | 1.20% | 0 |
| 2 | celticjim | 1806 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 0.67% | 1.33% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2079 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 11.67% |
| 4 | mungo | 2031 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 8 | 56 | 52.24% | 1.20% | 0.27% |
| 5 | p_a_k_o | 1941 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 70.70% |
| 6 | bennok | 1838 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 89.54% |
| 7 | Orbilin | 1826 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.47% |
| 8 | cutecat | 1968 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.53% | 33.75% |
| 9 | FatPhil | 1807 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.27% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* FatPhil 0 - 2 p_a_k_o

Games completed: 30/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1975 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 72 | 48.19% | 1.38% | 0 |
| 2 | celticjim | 1831 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0.89% | 0.77% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2079 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 13.47% |
| 4 | mungo | 2031 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 8 | 56 | 50.43% | 1.38% | 0.31% |
| 5 | p_a_k_o | 1951 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 61.84% |
| 6 | bennok | 1838 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 90.07% |
| 7 | cutecat | 1968 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.49% | 36.09% |
| 8 | Orbilin | 1826 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.56% |
| 9 | FatPhil | 1797 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.89% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* mungo 0 - 2 p_a_k_o
\* Orbilin 2 - 0 mungo <--- upset!

Games completed: 32/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Arrow2_bot | 1975 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 80 | 100% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | celticjim | 1831 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 10 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1.04% |
| 3 | Kisoul | 2079 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 19.95% |
| 4 | mungo | 1989 | 2 | _ | 2 | - | *0 | *0 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 8 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 4.19% |
| 5 | p_a_k_o | 1970 | 0 | 0 | 0 | *2 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 35.16% |
| 6 | Orbilin | 1849 | 0 | 0 | 0 | *2 | 0 | - | 0 | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | bennok | 1838 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 93.64% |
| 8 | FatPhil | 1797 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.33% |
| 9 | cutecat | 1968 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46.69% |
| 10 | JJ10 | 1820 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Congratulations to the robot! It probably doesn't care...

The program does not care, but as one of the authors I am happy with most of the games. It does not feel like a real win though, since Arrow also had a completely lost game against JJ10 when he dropped out.

I will try to analyze some of the games and put that analysis on my web page later in the summer.

How do people feel about future tournaments? Should I retire Arrow2_bot and let it play only friendly games, or should I keep entering it?

Martin

I wouldn't mind if it entered the next championship. If it wins the next one also, I might change my mind...

Congratulations, Martin et al.!

This is another major triumph for the UCT algorithm. Amazons has a branching factor of around 2000, along with a number of subtleties, making the game practically hopeless for other algorithms, like the traditional fixed-depth Alpha-Beta search used in chess.

But even with a breakthrough algorithm, it takes a lot of hard work to build a program like Arrow2. If i was a serious Amazons player, i'd consider having it as a ready opponent to be a treasure.