twixt.ch.36.1.1 predictions

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
I've been requested to follow twixt.ch.36.1.1 by RoRoRo the Bot

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page .
\* Already completed matches:

Games completed: 0/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | spd_iv | 2524 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 51.97% | 1.53% | 0.12% |
| 2 | mtbikesman | 1971 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 90.85% |
| 3 | upendra | 1974 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0 | 90.37% |
| 4 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 88.66% |
| 5 | matjazo | 2002 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 86.15% |
| 6 | David | 2060 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.07% | 0.01% | 72.43% |
| 7 | Yibyab | 2138 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.37% | 0.06% | 46.14% |
| 8 | Steven | 2207 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.44% | 0.31% | 24.24% |
| 9 | David J Bush | 2290 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 5.20% | 1.21% | 8.77% |
| 10 | Maciej Celuch | 2484 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 39.17% | 1.54% | 0.29% |
| 11 | Mirko Rahn | 1968 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 91.98% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

So far I am doing OK, I am in second place.

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Steven 2 - 0 mtbikesman

Games completed: 1/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Steven | 2224 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 2.11% | 0.54% | 15.88% |
| 2 | Mirko Rahn | 1968 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 91.97% |
| 3 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 52.15% | 1.59% | 0.12% |
| 4 | David J Bush | 2290 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 4.87% | 0.97% | 8.50% |
| 5 | Yibyab | 2138 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.31% | 0.07% | 46.94% |
| 6 | David | 2067 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.04% | 0.01% | 72.78% |
| 7 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 86.94% |
| 8 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0 | 90.38% |
| 9 | upendra | 1974 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 91.84% |
| 10 | mtbikesman | 1983 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 94.29% |
| 11 | Maciej Celuch | 2484 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 38.69% | 1.56% | 0.36% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Mirko Rahn 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch

Games completed: 2/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Steven | 2224 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 2.14% | 0.44% | 15.71% |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2485 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 39.43% | 1.52% | 0.22% |
| 3 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 51.45% | 1.57% | 0.12% |
| 4 | David J Bush | 2290 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 4.74% | 1.06% | 8.31% |
| 5 | Yibyab | 2141 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.40% | 0.07% | 45.45% |
| 6 | David | 2061 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.06% | 0.01% | 74.14% |
| 7 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 87.24% |
| 8 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 90.06% |
| 9 | upendra | 1974 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 91.80% |
| 10 | mtbikesman | 1988 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.62% |
| 11 | Mirko Rahn | 1970 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.33% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 mtbikesman

Games completed: 3/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2486 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 40.56% | 1.62% | 0.15% |
| 2 | Steven | 2204 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 1.53% | 0.34% | 19.61% |
| 3 | David J Bush | 2290 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 4.87% | 1.18% | 8.10% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2150 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.41% | 0.10% | 41.47% |
| 5 | David | 2061 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.05% | 0.01% | 74.00% |
| 6 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 86.83% |
| 7 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 90.27% |
| 8 | upendra | 1977 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 91.12% |
| 9 | mtbikesman | 1978 | *0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 95.22% |
| 10 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 50.72% | 1.66% | 0.17% |
| 11 | Mirko Rahn | 1970 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 93.06% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Yibyab 2 - 0 Mirko Rahn

Games completed: 4/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2486 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 40.36% | 1.61% | 0.19% |
| 2 | Steven | 2204 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 1.37% | 0.36% | 20.28% |
| 3 | Yibyab | 2168 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0.82% | 0.20% | 30.18% |
| 4 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 50.90% | 1.68% | 0.13% |
| 5 | David | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.05% | 0.00% | 77.95% |
| 6 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 87.55% |
| 7 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 90.47% |
| 8 | upendra | 1977 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 91.79% |
| 9 | David J Bush | 2290 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 4.62% | 1.15% | 8.91% |
| 10 | mtbikesman | 1978 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 95.66% |
| 11 | Mirko Rahn | 1963 | 0 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.88% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* David J Bush 2 - 0 upendra

Games completed: 5/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2486 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 40.07% | 1.72% | 0.22% |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2294 | _ | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 5.55% | 1.27% | 6.34% |
| 3 | Steven | 2204 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.43% | 0.35% | 19.74% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2168 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.75% | 0.22% | 30.17% |
| 5 | upendra | 1973 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 94.25% |
| 6 | Mirko Rahn | 1963 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 96.67% |
| 7 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 90.62% |
| 8 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.01% | 87.46% |
| 9 | David | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.03% | 0.00% | 78.77% |
| 10 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 50.20% | 1.75% | 0.15% |
| 11 | mtbikesman | 1981 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.60% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Mirko Rahn 2 - 0 mtbikesman

Games completed: 6/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2486 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 4 | 40.00% | 1.86% | 0.23% |
| 2 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0.83% | 0.16% | 28.90% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 1979 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.37% |
| 4 | Steven | 2204 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 1.43% | 0.32% | 22.36% |
| 5 | David J Bush | 2294 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 5.32% | 1.42% | 7.06% |
| 6 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 50.28% | 1.90% | 0.18% |
| 7 | mtbikesman | 1953 | 0 | _ | *0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.71% |
| 8 | upendra | 1973 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 94.47% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 90.92% |
| 10 | David | 2062 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.05% | 0.01% | 75.87% |
| 11 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 87.92% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Steven 0 - 2 David J Bush

Games completed: 7/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2486 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 4 | 38.91% | 2.47% | 0.14% |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2305 | _ | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 4 | 8.12% | 2.33% | 1.91% |
| 3 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0.78% | 0.14% | 26.62% |
| 4 | Mirko Rahn | 1979 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 92.41% |
| 5 | Steven | 2193 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.35% | 0.06% | 30.90% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 1973 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.99% |
| 7 | David | 2042 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.04% | 0.02% | 78.96% |
| 8 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0 | 86.94% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 90.04% |
| 10 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.98% |
| 11 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 49.08% | 2.50% | 0.12% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* mtbikesman 0 - 2 David J Bush
\* David J Bush 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch

Games completed: 9/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2494 | - | *2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 6 | 16 | 48.19% | 1.87% | 0.02% |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2301 | *0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | _ | 6 | 4 | 2.43% | 1.59% | 1.97% |
| 3 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0.63% | 0.17% | 26.32% |
| 4 | Mirko Rahn | 1979 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 92.19% |
| 5 | Steven | 2193 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.36% | 0.06% | 31.46% |
| 6 | David | 2042 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.03% | 0.00% | 78.62% |
| 7 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86.53% |
| 8 | diego44 | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 90.02% |
| 9 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.79% |
| 10 | mtbikesman | 1969 | 0 | *0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.98% |
| 11 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 46.38% | 1.83% | 0.11% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Mirko Rahn 2 - 0 diego44

Games completed: 10/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2494 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 6 | 20 | 48.53% | 1.93% | 0.02% |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2301 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2.33% | 1.66% | 1.94% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 1995 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | _ | _ | 4 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 85.58% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0.77% | 0.20% | 25.84% |
| 5 | Steven | 2193 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.37% | 0.06% | 31.59% |
| 6 | David | 2044 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.01% | 78.70% |
| 7 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 86.76% |
| 8 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 96.06% |
| 9 | mtbikesman | 1969 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.14% |
| 10 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 45.93% | 1.90% | 0.17% |
| 11 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.20% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 David

Games completed: 11/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2496 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 20 | 49.17% | 2.04% | 0.01% |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2301 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2.10% | 1.75% | 1.65% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 1995 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84.58% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0.61% | 0.21% | 25.14% |
| 5 | Steven | 2193 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.35% | 0.07% | 29.33% |
| 6 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 45.62% | 2.01% | 0.11% |
| 7 | David | 2023 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 84.62% |
| 8 | matjazo | 2006 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 86.26% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.93% |
| 10 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 93.51% |
| 11 | mtbikesman | 1988 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.85% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* matjazo 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch

Games completed: 12/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2497 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | _ | _ | 2 | 10 | 20 | 50.61% | 2.03% | 0.00% |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2301 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1.79% | 1.79% | 1.70% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 1995 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84.76% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0.62% | 0.17% | 24.71% |
| 5 | Steven | 2193 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.30% | 0.06% | 28.89% |
| 6 | spd_iv | 2524 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 44.56% | 2.02% | 0.11% |
| 7 | David | 2029 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 83.46% |
| 8 | matjazo | 2005 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 87.96% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.89% |
| 10 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 93.71% |
| 11 | mtbikesman | 1989 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.80% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 spd_iv

Games completed: 13/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2514 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 12 | 20 | 96.63% | 0.31% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2301 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0.41% | 0.06% | 1.62% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 1995 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84.57% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0.60% | 0.19% | 24.84% |
| 5 | Steven | 2193 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.31% | 0.03% | 29.30% |
| 6 | spd_iv | 2507 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.72% | 0.22% | 0.25% |
| 7 | David | 2029 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83.35% |
| 8 | matjazo | 2005 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 87.78% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 95.74% |
| 10 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.77% |
| 11 | mtbikesman | 1989 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.79% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

Amazing!

It seems that the boss is back :P

yea, i made some mistakes but ive also learnd something new :) i made those mistakes maybe because i felt to much respect to Maciek. I hope i can beat him in our next match :)

Congrats! It will be hard for him to lose two games in this tournament and for David or someone else who still have chance to win all his games, so probably Maciek will be our next champion.

spd: are you planning to comment on the commentator? I would be interested in what mistakes you made and what you learned :-)

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* mtbikesman 2 - 0 matjazo

Games completed: 14/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2514 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 12 | 24 | 96.71% | 0.32% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2301 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 6 | 8 | 0.37% | 0.08% | 1.46% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 1995 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 83.92% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0.54% | 0.18% | 24.33% |
| 5 | Steven | 2204 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0.35% | 0.05% | 25.40% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.26% |
| 7 | David | 2029 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83.35% |
| 8 | matjazo | 1989 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | *0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.33% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.83% |
| 10 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 93.77% |
| 11 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.69% | 0.21% | 0.36% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

I agree with dushoff, an analyze could be nice (-;

I particularly do not understand move 6.o11, I think I would play something "around" k5.

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Mirko Rahn 2 - 0 Steven <--- upset!

Games completed: 15/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2514 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 97.19% | 0.24% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2301 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 6 | 8 | 0.33% | 0.04% | 1.85% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 2021 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | *2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 53.12% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2170 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 12 | 0.61% | 0.16% | 24.85% |
| 5 | Steven | 2180 | _ | 0 | *0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0.03% | 0.00% | 56.77% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.48% |
| 7 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 93.00% |
| 8 | David | 2029 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82.60% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.01% |
| 10 | matjazo | 1989 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 93.97% |
| 11 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.60% | 0.18% | 0.34% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* David 0 - 2 David J Bush

Games completed: 16/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2514 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 96.92% | 0.30% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2306 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | *2 | 2 | _ | _ | 8 | 8 | 0.41% | 0.05% | 1.05% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 2030 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.91% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 12 | 0.62% | 0.19% | 23.95% |
| 5 | Steven | 2201 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0.04% | 0.01% | 52.55% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.26% |
| 7 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.24% |
| 8 | David | 2024 | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89.02% |
| 9 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 93.91% |
| 10 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.71% | 0.21% | 0.47% |
| 11 | matjazo | 1989 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.65% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* matjazo 0 - 2 Mirko Rahn

Games completed: 17/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2514 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 96.90% | 0.31% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2306 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 8 | 8 | 0.40% | 0.05% | 1.35% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 2044 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 35.78% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 16 | 0.66% | 0.19% | 25.08% |
| 5 | Steven | 2201 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0.05% | 0.01% | 58.63% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.25% |
| 7 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.08% |
| 8 | David | 2024 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90.07% |
| 9 | upendra | 1973 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 94.54% |
| 10 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.67% | 0.23% | 0.49% |
| 11 | matjazo | 1975 | 0 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.73% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* David 2 - 0 mtbikesman

Games completed: 18/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2514 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 96.92% | 0.25% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2306 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 8 | 12 | 0.39% | 0.04% | 1.28% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 2044 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 39.70% |
| 4 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 16 | 0.66% | 0.16% | 26.30% |
| 5 | David | 2040 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 82.94% |
| 6 | Steven | 2209 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0.03% | 0.01% | 58.31% |
| 7 | mtbikesman | 2002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | *0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.73% |
| 8 | upendra | 1967 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.16% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.18% |
| 10 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.75% | 0.18% | 0.60% |
| 11 | matjazo | 1975 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.81% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* mtbikesman 2 - 0 upendra

Games completed: 19/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2514 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 12 | 44 | 96.94% | 0.27% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2306 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 8 | 16 | 0.48% | 0.04% | 1.31% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 2044 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | 0 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 37.94% |
| 4 | mtbikesman | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.41% |
| 5 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 16 | 0.59% | 0.19% | 25.97% |
| 6 | David | 2040 | 0 | 0 | _ | 2 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 82.36% |
| 7 | Steven | 2209 | _ | 0 | 0 | 2 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0.04% | 0.02% | 58.36% |
| 8 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.66% | 0.18% | 0.53% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.33% |
| 10 | upendra | 1953 | _ | 0 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.99% |
| 11 | matjazo | 1975 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.79% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 Steven
\* Steven 0 - 2 David

Games completed: 21/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2518 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | *2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 14 | 52 | 98.66% | 0.21% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2306 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 8 | 20 | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.76% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 2044 | 0 | _ | - | _ | 2 | 0 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 38.94% |
| 4 | David | 2063 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 54.19% |
| 5 | mtbikesman | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 0 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.30% |
| 6 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 16 | 0.53% | 0.19% | 22.69% |
| 7 | Steven | 2183 | *0 | 0 | 0 | *0 | 2 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 90.39% |
| 8 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.48% | 0.18% | 0.41% |
| 9 | upendra | 1953 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.67% |
| 10 | diego44 | 1970 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 96.98% |
| 11 | matjazo | 1975 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.67% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* diego44 0 - 2 mtbikesman
\* Steven 2 - 0 diego44
\* matjazo 0 - 2 Steven

Games completed: 24/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2518 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 14 | 64 | 98.70% | 0.20% | 0 |
| 2 | David J Bush | 2306 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 8 | 32 | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.75% |
| 3 | Mirko Rahn | 2044 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 0 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 8 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 40.07% |
| 4 | Steven | 2200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 0 | _ | *2 | *2 | _ | _ | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 83.12% |
| 5 | mtbikesman | 2038 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | *2 | 2 | _ | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.81% |
| 6 | David | 2063 | 0 | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 53.85% |
| 7 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 16 | 0.57% | 0.19% | 25.76% |
| 8 | matjazo | 1968 | 0 | _ | 0 | *0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.58% |
| 9 | diego44 | 1951 | _ | _ | 0 | *0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.62% |
| 10 | upendra | 1953 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.92% |
| 11 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.41% | 0.18% | 0.52% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* David J Bush 0 - 2 Mirko Rahn <--- upset!

Games completed: 25/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2518 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 14 | 68 | 98.87% | 0.20% | 0 |
| 2 | Mirko Rahn | 2070 | 0 | - | *2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 0 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 10 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 7.90% |
| 3 | David J Bush | 2280 | 0 | *0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 8 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 6.07% |
| 4 | Steven | 2200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 0 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 90.16% |
| 5 | mtbikesman | 2038 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.48% |
| 6 | David | 2063 | 0 | _ | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 24 | 0.00% | 0 | 67.50% |
| 7 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 20 | 0.54% | 0.20% | 29.85% |
| 8 | diego44 | 1951 | _ | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.73% |
| 9 | upendra | 1953 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.87% |
| 10 | matjazo | 1968 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.75% |
| 11 | spd_iv | 2507 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.39% | 0.19% | 0.69% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

If spd was hoping I'd find a way to throw a monkey wrench into Maciej's run, it's probably obvious now that I botched any chance of that at least around move #9.

So unless diego44 has an answer for the new boss, allow me to be the first to congratulate Maciej.

(Oh, and sorry everyone for my slow play. Tough time of year for me to devote the time I need to examine the games and put up a challenge for this level of competition. I could use one of the site's cron stoppages to stem the bleeding down of my vacation day balance.)

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* mtbikesman 0 - 2 spd_iv
\* matjazo 0 - 2 David
\* upendra 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch
\* spd_iv 2 - 0 Mirko Rahn
\* Mirko Rahn 2 - 0 David

Games completed: 30/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2519 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 16 | 84 | 99.08% | 0.20% | 0 |
| 2 | Mirko Rahn | 2065 | 0 | - | 2 | *2 | 2 | 2 | *0 | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0.08% |
| 3 | David J Bush | 2280 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 8 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 5.26% |
| 4 | David | 2062 | 0 | *0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 78.59% |
| 5 | Steven | 2200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 90.57% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 2037 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | *0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 7 | spd_iv | 2510 | 0 | *2 | _ | _ | _ | *2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 36 | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.31% |
| 8 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 24 | 0.48% | 0.20% | 26.48% |
| 9 | upendra | 1955 | *0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.08% |
| 10 | diego44 | 1951 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.68% |
| 11 | matjazo | 1977 | 0 | 0 | _ | *0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.97% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* matjazo 0 - 2 upendra

Games completed: 31/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2519 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 16 | 88 | 99.07% | 0.21% | 0 |
| 2 | Mirko Rahn | 2065 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0.15% |
| 3 | David J Bush | 2280 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 8 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 5.02% |
| 4 | David | 2062 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 79.76% |
| 5 | Steven | 2200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 91.04% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 2032 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 7 | spd_iv | 2510 | 0 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 36 | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.34% |
| 8 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 24 | 0.50% | 0.20% | 26.07% |
| 9 | upendra | 1972 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.91% |
| 10 | diego44 | 1951 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.72% |
| 11 | matjazo | 1960 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | *0 | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* David J Bush 2 - 0 matjazo

Games completed: 32/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2519 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 16 | 92 | 99.06% | 0.24% | 0 |
| 2 | Mirko Rahn | 2065 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0.16% |
| 3 | David J Bush | 2284 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | _ | 10 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 3.79% |
| 4 | David | 2062 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 80.28% |
| 5 | Steven | 2200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 91.21% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 2032 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | spd_iv | 2510 | 0 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 36 | 0.20% | 0.23% | 0.33% |
| 8 | Yibyab | 2177 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 24 | 0.50% | 0.23% | 26.49% |
| 9 | upendra | 1972 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.04% |
| 10 | matjazo | 1956 | 0 | 0 | *0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 11 | diego44 | 1951 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.71% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: twixt.ch.36.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Yibyab 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch

Games completed: 33/55
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. 11 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2522 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 18 | 96 | 100% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Mirko Rahn | 2052 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0.06% |
| 3 | David J Bush | 2284 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 10 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 3.43% |
| 4 | David | 2084 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 72.94% |
| 5 | Steven | 2227 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 88.10% |
| 6 | mtbikesman | 2031 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | spd_iv | 2510 | 0 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0.32% |
| 8 | Yibyab | 2153 | *0 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 38.15% |
| 9 | upendra | 1985 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.31% |
| 10 | matjazo | 1957 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 11 | diego44 | 1951 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.69% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

congrats maciek!

Congrats!

Yeah, nice !

Thank you guys!

Heh, I just noticed. What a crush! Well done Maciej.

a very impressive tournament guys. Well done.