hex.ch.32.1.1 predictions

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
I've been requested to follow hex.ch.32.1.1 by RoRoRo the Bot

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page .
\* Already completed matches:

Games completed: 0/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2586 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 68.90% | 1.43% | 0.45% |
| 2 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2054 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 94.39% |
| 3 | Stanley Kozera | 2139 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.15% | 0.03% | 82.18% |
| 4 | Frode Lillevold | 2202 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.51% | 0.10% | 65.23% |
| 5 | Art Duval | 2221 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.80% | 0.10% | 59.42% |
| 6 | Arek Kulczycki | 2262 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.72% | 0.27% | 45.45% |
| 7 | shalev | 2301 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 3.12% | 0.48% | 32.64% |
| 8 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2376 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 9.59% | 0.83% | 14.69% |
| 9 | iLyN Sin | 2402 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 13.32% | 1.01% | 10.56% |
| 10 | Tony | 2053 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0 | 95.00% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Good luck everyone!

There are lot's of good players. I am happy that Ilyn came back. It will be an interesting tournament! Enjoy!

0,15% p(win) :( hahaha gl hf! :)

15 times bigger than Tony's

Go, Tony! :)

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 Daniel Sepczuk

Games completed: 1/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2592 | - | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 78.77% | 1.12% | 0.10% |
| 2 | iLyN Sin | 2402 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 12.11% | 0.77% | 9.29% |
| 3 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2349 | *0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.42% | 0.36% | 22.19% |
| 4 | shalev | 2288 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 2.22% | 0.28% | 36.22% |
| 5 | Arek Kulczycki | 2300 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 2.84% | 0.33% | 32.45% |
| 6 | Art Duval | 2221 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.71% | 0.11% | 61.00% |
| 7 | Frode Lillevold | 2202 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.44% | 0.08% | 67.22% |
| 8 | Stanley Kozera | 2151 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.11% | 0.03% | 81.45% |
| 9 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2054 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 95.04% |
| 10 | Tony | 2053 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0 | 95.03% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Stanley Kozera 0 - 2 Daniel Sepczuk

Games completed: 2/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2565 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 73.08% | 1.52% | 0.23% |
| 2 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2356 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 2.44% | 0.53% | 17.54% |
| 3 | iLyN Sin | 2402 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 13.19% | 1.00% | 9.99% |
| 4 | shalev | 2304 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 3.23% | 0.45% | 33.10% |
| 5 | Arek Kulczycki | 2331 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 4.88% | 0.60% | 25.03% |
| 6 | Art Duval | 2221 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.67% | 0.13% | 63.00% |
| 7 | Frode Lillevold | 2202 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.53% | 0.09% | 69.48% |
| 8 | Stanley Kozera | 2136 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.04% | 0.01% | 90.17% |
| 9 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2054 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 95.69% |
| 10 | Tony | 2053 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 95.76% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Tony 0 - 2 Daniel Sepczuk
\* Daniel Sepczuk 2 - 0 Ignatius J Reilly
\* Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 Ignatius J Reilly

Games completed: 5/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2382 | - | 0 | *2 | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 6 | 0 | 3.40% | 0.77% | 9.75% |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2566 | 2 | - | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 12 | 75.91% | 1.43% | 0.19% |
| 3 | Tony | 2051 | *0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0 | 96.88% |
| 4 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | *0 | *0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.50% |
| 5 | iLyN Sin | 2384 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 9.88% | 0.83% | 13.22% |
| 6 | shalev | 2311 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 3.30% | 0.44% | 31.24% |
| 7 | Arek Kulczycki | 2331 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 4.58% | 0.52% | 26.20% |
| 8 | Art Duval | 2221 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.67% | 0.11% | 63.80% |
| 9 | Stanley Kozera | 2136 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.04% | 0.01% | 90.34% |
| 10 | Frode Lillevold | 2202 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.41% | 0.07% | 70.88% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Daniel Sepczuk 2 - 0 Frode Lillevold

Games completed: 6/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2390 | - | 0 | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 8 | 0 | 4.66% | 0.86% | 5.13% |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2566 | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 16 | 75.60% | 1.56% | 0.14% |
| 3 | Arek Kulczycki | 2331 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 4.50% | 0.59% | 23.98% |
| 4 | Frode Lillevold | 2194 | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.13% | 0.05% | 78.21% |
| 5 | Art Duval | 2221 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.60% | 0.09% | 62.53% |
| 6 | Stanley Kozera | 2136 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.01% | 89.60% |
| 7 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.60% |
| 8 | iLyN Sin | 2384 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 9.36% | 0.91% | 14.01% |
| 9 | Tony | 2051 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 97.04% |
| 10 | shalev | 2311 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 3.23% | 0.41% | 31.76% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Art Duval 0 - 2 Daniel Sepczuk

Games completed: 7/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2398 | - | 0 | 2 | *2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6.20% | 0.92% | 1.62% |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2566 | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 20 | 75.51% | 1.56% | 0.14% |
| 3 | Frode Lillevold | 2194 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.09% | 0.04% | 76.81% |
| 4 | Art Duval | 2213 | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.15% | 0.06% | 72.27% |
| 5 | Arek Kulczycki | 2349 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 5.79% | 0.67% | 19.53% |
| 6 | Stanley Kozera | 2143 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.03% | 0.01% | 87.85% |
| 7 | Tony | 2051 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 96.80% |
| 8 | shalev | 2311 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 3.16% | 0.44% | 30.65% |
| 9 | iLyN Sin | 2366 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 7.17% | 0.79% | 16.72% |
| 10 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.61% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Daniel Sepczuk 2 - 0 Arek Kulczycki

Games completed: 8/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2411 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | *2 | 2 | _ | 12 | 0 | 10.63% | 1.34% | 0.01% |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2566 | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 24 | 76.18% | 1.66% | 0.12% |
| 3 | Tony | 2051 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 95.87% |
| 4 | Art Duval | 2213 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.10% | 0.06% | 69.47% |
| 5 | Frode Lillevold | 2194 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.08% | 0.03% | 75.69% |
| 6 | Stanley Kozera | 2143 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.01% | 86.56% |
| 7 | iLyN Sin | 2366 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 6.77% | 0.88% | 15.07% |
| 8 | Arek Kulczycki | 2336 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.27% | 0.58% | 31.61% |
| 9 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.22% |
| 10 | shalev | 2314 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 2.95% | 0.46% | 28.39% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Daniel Sepczuk 2 - 0 iLyN Sin

Games completed: 9/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2424 | - | 0 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | *2 | 14 | 0 | 17.30% | 1.66% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2566 | 2 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 28 | 76.30% | 1.79% | 0.07% |
| 3 | shalev | 2314 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 2.76% | 0.41% | 24.33% |
| 4 | Stanley Kozera | 2143 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 84.55% |
| 5 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.54% |
| 6 | Tony | 2051 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.70% |
| 7 | Frode Lillevold | 2194 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.03% | 0.03% | 73.72% |
| 8 | Art Duval | 2213 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.05% | 0.04% | 69.05% |
| 9 | Arek Kulczycki | 2336 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.66% | 0.57% | 30.05% |
| 10 | iLyN Sin | 2353 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.91% | 0.79% | 26.01% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Damn, did iLyN flag? I hope he doesn't abandon little golem again...

It's even good tournament for me. When I saw the opponents I'll hope that I don't fall down, which never happened. If I win against shalev, I'll finish on 2nd place. Nice result, when you notice that I lose often with Arek and shalev

Very well played Daniel, but hold on, the winner is not certain yet.However, it is a matter of a few moves in a few games now.

iLyN is probably dissatisfied by his drop in performance, although I think he will not head out now.

Daniel *is* correct to note that if he wins against shalev, he will finish in no worse than 2nd place. (In *any* LG tournament of a game that has no draws, if you lose only 1 game then you will finish no worse than 2nd.)

iLyN has already lost 2 more games from timeout and will lose all the rest as well, if he doesn't move in the next 2-3 days.

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Tony 0 - 2 Frode Lillevold
\* iLyN Sin 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch
\* Tony 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch
\* shalev 0 - 2 Daniel Sepczuk
\* iLyN Sin 0 - 2 Art Duval
\* Stanley Kozera 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch

Games completed: 15/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 11.06% | 1.81% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2575 | 2 | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | *2 | 10 | 32 | 87.13% | 1.81% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Frode Lillevold | 2203 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.07% | 57.00% |
| 4 | Art Duval | 2232 | 0 | _ | _ | - | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.18% | 38.31% |
| 5 | iLyN Sin | 2242 | 0 | *0 | _ | *0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73.83% |
| 6 | shalev | 2303 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.54% | 32.53% |
| 7 | Arek Kulczycki | 2336 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.02% | 24.52% |
| 8 | Stanley Kozera | 2165 | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 79.99% |
| 9 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.71% |
| 10 | Tony | 2041 | 0 | *0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.11% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* iLyN Sin 0 - 2 Tony

Games completed: 16/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 11.03% | 1.96% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2575 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 10 | 36 | 87.01% | 1.96% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Frode Lillevold | 2203 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.08% | 51.66% |
| 4 | Tony | 2064 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 92.52% |
| 5 | Art Duval | 2232 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.19% | 40.06% |
| 6 | Stanley Kozera | 2165 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 76.64% |
| 7 | iLyN Sin | 2188 | 0 | 0 | _ | *0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91.86% |
| 8 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.81% |
| 9 | shalev | 2303 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.59% | 30.16% |
| 10 | Arek Kulczycki | 2336 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.10% | 22.29% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* iLyN Sin 0 - 2 Stanley Kozera

Games completed: 17/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 11.08% | 1.86% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2575 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 10 | 40 | 87.06% | 1.86% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Frode Lillevold | 2203 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.05% | 53.07% |
| 4 | Tony | 2064 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.09% |
| 5 | Art Duval | 2232 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.20% | 42.40% |
| 6 | Stanley Kozera | 2182 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | *2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64.09% |
| 7 | iLyN Sin | 2171 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | *0 | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.14% |
| 8 | shalev | 2303 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.46% | 30.98% |
| 9 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.05% |
| 10 | Arek Kulczycki | 2336 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.15% | 23.18% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Arek Kulczycki 2 - 0 iLyN Sin

Games completed: 18/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 20 | 10.94% | 2.55% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2575 | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 86.52% | 2.55% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Frode Lillevold | 2203 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.04% | 53.72% |
| 4 | Arek Kulczycki | 2344 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.77% | 15.28% |
| 5 | Art Duval | 2232 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.20% | 44.05% |
| 6 | Stanley Kozera | 2182 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65.84% |
| 7 | Tony | 2064 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.16% |
| 8 | shalev | 2303 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.54% | 31.82% |
| 9 | iLyN Sin | 2163 | 0 | 0 | _ | *0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.93% |
| 10 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95.20% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* shalev 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch
\* Maciej Celuch 2 - 0 Arek Kulczycki

Games completed: 20/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 20 | 1.17% | 0.34% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2586 | 2 | - | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 14 | 44 | 98.48% | 0.34% | 0 |
| 3 | Frode Lillevold | 2203 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.10% | 50.86% |
| 4 | Arek Kulczycki | 2338 | 0 | *0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.22% |
| 5 | Art Duval | 2232 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.25% | 42.46% |
| 6 | Stanley Kozera | 2182 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63.40% |
| 7 | Tony | 2064 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.60% |
| 8 | iLyN Sin | 2163 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.95% |
| 9 | shalev | 2298 | 0 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36.93% |
| 10 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.59% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Ignatius J Reilly 2 - 0 iLyN Sin

Games completed: 21/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 1.14% | 0.32% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2586 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 98.54% | 0.32% | 0 |
| 3 | Frode Lillevold | 2203 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.09% | 51.26% |
| 4 | Arek Kulczycki | 2338 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.11% |
| 5 | Art Duval | 2232 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.23% | 44.38% |
| 6 | Stanley Kozera | 2182 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65.17% |
| 7 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2070 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88.69% |
| 8 | Tony | 2064 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.41% |
| 9 | shalev | 2298 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36.97% |
| 10 | iLyN Sin | 2142 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | *0 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Stanley Kozera 2 - 0 Frode Lillevold
\* Arek Kulczycki 2 - 0 Ignatius J Reilly
\* Tony 2 - 0 Ignatius J Reilly

Games completed: 24/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 1.07% | 0.23% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2586 | 2 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 98.69% | 0.23% | 0 |
| 3 | Arek Kulczycki | 2343 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14.91% |
| 4 | Stanley Kozera | 2198 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 42.66% |
| 5 | Tony | 2080 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 0 | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 87.73% |
| 6 | Frode Lillevold | 2187 | 0 | _ | _ | *0 | 2 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 73.92% |
| 7 | Art Duval | 2232 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.23% | 45.86% |
| 8 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | *0 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.59% |
| 9 | shalev | 2298 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.32% |
| 10 | iLyN Sin | 2142 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Frode Lillevold 2 - 0 iLyN Sin

Games completed: 25/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 1.12% | 0.18% | 0 |
| 2 | Maciej Celuch | 2586 | 2 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 98.71% | 0.18% | 0 |
| 3 | Stanley Kozera | 2198 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 42.50% |
| 4 | Frode Lillevold | 2200 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 64.54% |
| 5 | Arek Kulczycki | 2343 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18.58% |
| 6 | Tony | 2080 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 90.71% |
| 7 | Art Duval | 2232 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.18% | 49.36% |
| 8 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.74% |
| 9 | iLyN Sin | 2120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | *0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 10 | shalev | 2307 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36.58% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: hex.ch.32.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Art Duval 0 - 2 Maciej Celuch

Games completed: 26/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Maciej Celuch | 2589 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 64 | 100% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Daniel Sepczuk | 2435 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Stanley Kozera | 2202 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 41.18% |
| 4 | Frode Lillevold | 2200 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 64.34% |
| 5 | Arek Kulczycki | 2348 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17.68% |
| 6 | Tony | 2080 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 90.01% |
| 7 | Art Duval | 2233 | *0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53.06% |
| 8 | Ignatius J Reilly | 2049 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.78% |
| 9 | iLyN Sin | 2120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 10 | shalev | 2309 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35.95% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

Congratulations Maciej :)

Congratulations Maciej! Now let's see if you can finally get to 2600 Elo :P

Thank you. 2600 elo is impossible for me. I have tried 2 times before.

Hey it's gonna take just 2 more wins against top 5, you will do it in no time :)

This Maciej :P

Well done... again and again ! (-;