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dvonn.ch.20.1.1 predictions

Public forum discussion.

Gipf projekt

#1 · RoRoRo the Bot

19 Jun 2012

*Tournament: "dvonn.ch.20.1.1":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/tournament/tournament.jsp?trnid=dvonn.ch.20.1.1*
I've been requested to follow dvonn.ch.20.1.1 by FatPhil

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page.
\* Already completed matches:

Games completed: 37/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | MRUNBEATABLE | (2131) | -| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748 | 12 | 72 | 12.03% | 10.52% | 0 |
| 2 | Pere Toledano | (1977)| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435751 | -| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781 | 10 | 72 | 1.86% | 7.85% | 1.88% |
| 3 | mongoose | (2072)| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435746| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435772 | -| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769 | 10 | 68 | 33.40% | 5.36% | 6.95% |
| 4 | Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) | (2095)| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435745| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435766| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435761 | -| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763 | 10 | 64 | 36.99% | 3.61% | 9.46% |
| 5 | Alban | (2020)| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435749| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435784| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435770| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435764 | -| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779 | 10 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 32.47% |
| 6 | Kisoul | (2005)| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435750| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435786| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435771| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435765| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435783 | -| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 74.02% |
| 7 | Clint Meyer | (1890)| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435752| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435788| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435773| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435767| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435785| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435787 | -| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 8 | Paavo Pirinen | (2045)| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435744| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435759| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435754| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435753| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435757| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435758| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435760 | -| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 9 | Talizess | (2005)| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435747| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435777| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435768| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435762| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435775| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435776| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435778| "_":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435755 | -| "2":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 | 2 | 0 | 4.47% | 0.35% | 75.23% |
| 10 | MRGREEDY | (1849)| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435748| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435781| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435769| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435763| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435779| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435780| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435782| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435756| "0":http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1435774 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

#2 · RoRoRo the Bot

25 Jun 2012

*Tournament: dvonn.ch.20.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Talizess 2 - 0 Alban

Games completed: 38/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | MRUNBEATABLE | (2124) | -| 0 0 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 | 12 | 76 | 9.25% | 11.78% | 0 |
| 2 | Pere Toledano | (1977)| 2 | -| 0 0 2 2 0 2 _ 2 | 10 | 72 | 1.30% | 8.53% | 2.06% |
| 3 | mongoose | (2072)| 2 2 | -| _ 0 0 2 2 _ 2 | 10 | 68 | 28.97% | 6.56% | 4.44% |
| 4 | Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) | (2131)| 0 2 _ | -| 2 0 2 2 _ 2 | 10 | 64 | 39.53% | 3.94% | 8.73% |
| 5 | Alban | (1979)| 0 0 2 0 | -| 2 2 2 *0 2 | 10 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 71.13% |
| 6 | Kisoul | (2005)| 0 0 2 2 0 | -| 2 0 _ 2 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 57.11% |
| 7 | Clint Meyer | (1890)| 2 2 0 0 0 0 | -| 0 _ 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 8 | Paavo Pirinen | (2045)| 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 | -| _ 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 9 | Talizess | (2021)| 0 _ _ _ *2 _ _ _ | -| 2 | 4 | 20 | 8.45% | 0.65% | 56.53% |
| 10 | MRGREEDY | (1849)| 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

#3 · RoRoRo the Bot

27 Jun 2012

*Tournament: dvonn.ch.20.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Kisoul 2 - 0 Talizess
\* mongoose 0 - 2 Tobias (TORBEN .BSW)

Games completed: 40/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) | (2144) | -| 0 2 *2 0 2 2 2 _ 2 | 12 | 84 | 71.60% | 6.05% | 0 |
| 2 | MRUNBEATABLE | (2105)| 2 | -| 0 0 2 2 0 2 2 2 | 12 | 84 | 12.90% | 13.47% | 0 |
| 3 | Pere Toledano | (1977)| 0 2 | -| 0 2 2 0 2 _ 2 | 10 | 76 | 0 | 11.57% | 2.84% |
| 4 | mongoose | (2059)| *0 2 2 | -| 0 0 2 2 _ 2 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 13.64% |
| 5 | Kisoul | (2021)| 2 0 0 2 | -| 0 2 0 *2 2 | 10 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Alban | (1979)| 0 0 0 2 2 | -| 2 2 0 2 | 10 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 7 | Clint Meyer | (1890)| 0 2 2 0 0 0 | -| 0 _ 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 8 | Paavo Pirinen | (2045)| 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 | -| _ 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 9 | Talizess | (2005)| _ 0 _ _ *0 2 _ _ | -| 2 | 4 | 20 | 2.03% | 0 | 83.52% |
| 10 | MRGREEDY | (1849)| 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

#4 · RoRoRo the Bot

4 Jul 2012

*Tournament: dvonn.ch.20.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Talizess 2 - 0 Paavo Pirinen

Games completed: 41/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | MRUNBEATABLE | (2091) | -| 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 | 12 | 88 | 12.32% | 11.26% | 0 |
| 2 | Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) | (2158)| 0 | -| 2 0 2 2 2 2 _ 2 | 12 | 84 | 71.06% | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Pere Toledano | (1977)| 2 0 | -| 2 0 2 0 2 _ 2 | 10 | 76 | 0 | 11.26% | 6.65% |
| 4 | Kisoul | (2021)| 0 2 0 | -| 2 0 2 0 2 2 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | mongoose | (2059)| 2 0 2 0 | -| 0 2 2 _ 2 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 23.91% |
| 6 | Alban | (1916)| 0 0 0 2 2 | -| 2 2 0 2 | 10 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 7 | Clint Meyer | (1890)| 2 0 2 0 0 0 | -| 0 _ 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 8 | Paavo Pirinen | (2028)| 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 | -| *0 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |
| 9 | Talizess | (2022)| 0 _ _ 0 _ 2 _ *2 | -| 2 | 6 | 32 | 5.36% | 0 | 69.43% |
| 10 | MRGREEDY | (1849)| 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted

#5 · RoRoRo the Bot

18 Jul 2012

*Tournament: dvonn.ch.20.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) 2 - 0 Talizess

Games completed: 42/45
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. 10 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Tobias (TORBEN .BSW) | (2147) | -| 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 *2 2 | 14 | 96 | 100% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | MRUNBEATABLE | (2091)| 2 | -| 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 | 12 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Pere Toledano | (1977)| 0 2 | -| 2 0 2 0 2 _ 2 | 10 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Kisoul | (2021)| 2 0 0 | -| 2 0 2 0 2 2 | 10 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | mongoose | (2059)| 0 2 2 0 | -| 0 2 2 _ 2 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 15.90% |
| 6 | Alban | (1916)| 0 0 0 2 2 | -| 2 2 0 2 | 10 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | Clint Meyer | (1885)| 0 2 2 0 0 0 | -| 0 _ 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | Paavo Pirinen | (2028)| 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 | -| 0 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 9 | Talizess | (2012)| *0 0 _ 0 _ 2 _ 2 | -| 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 84.10% |
| 10 | MRGREEDY | (1849)| 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted