New EWN Team Tournament

Einstein tc.2.1.1 has started.

:c !!!!

Go team!

My team was disbanded and I didn't know it. I thought I'd be in this tournament.

I forgot to sign RoRoRo up for one of the teams (he'd been invited to several) :-(

Entirely my fault, sorry to those who sent the invitations.

Good for us! ;) On the other hand, after the two best german players (luiser & kitaktus) have decided not to play anymore I cancelled the german team to play with 2 strong colleagues and one of my bots only, unfortunately, I have not thought of asking very talented new players like darse and csun as well as na_wspak whether they want to play in our team because darse could be one of the best EWN players ever joined this page ...

You are right, i had some matches with him a couple of days ago.

[blush] Thanks for the nice words, guys. I really like the game -- i've been looking for other good games like backgammon (perfect information, stochastic). I studied a lot of the bot matches (Sybil, RoRoRo the Bot, OneStone, naive_child, etc.) in order to learn the basic lessons fast; and then played a bunch of friendly games against the beasts to apply those principles in practice (and did okay against them).

Note, however, that i *am* playing correspondence, not "live". In LG match play, i normally do a 2-ply analysis if the move isn't obvious, estimating the chances after the best move for each opponent piece, and then do the EV calculation. Comparing those outcomes side-by-side helps clarify the most important themes, and quantifies the value of a gamble. If still in doubt, i just follow Theo's maxim: "Always be in a hurry".

teamp

(maximum score)ScorePointsHuman

brains and one BOT19%12 : 40EinStein

Italia16%6 : 40WE MOVE AT

RANDOM15%4 : 20Equipo

Español15%0 : 00EWN

Scientists15%0 : 00Finnish

EinStein Players14%4 : 40Serendipity14%0 : 20France

EWN12%0 : 40Sobral191911%0 : 60

Good start for team Italy, we move at random and us. Assumed that the chance to win a match is always 50%, this is the current state.

Handy hint - don't put newlines in your formatted posts!

Sorry, I didn't noticed that.

I have inserted this calculation into my profile. That's easier for me.

I try to update the chance to win this team tournament once a day.

Take a look: STATS

The current results look like a game 'Looser against the rest of the world'. ;) Good start for team 'EWN Scientists': STATS

I´m sorry that the team "We move at random" lost his owner. gpallis ist not playing in this tournament and lost his games without a move.

That's a gift of 32 score points from "We move at random" to the other teams, interestingly, there's still a minimal chance for "We move at random" to get the most points (shared with at least one other team).

doin' good doin' good my fellows!

What happened to Team USA?

It seems so that the Team USA split before the tournament started.

Updated prediction: STATS

"Split" meaning divided into two parts? Meaning (slang) left the venue? I was on it and the first I heard was when the tournament started without me.

I don't know who the owner of the team was. But it seems so that he removed the Team USA before the tournament started. Otherwise it would be with us in the tournament.

UPDATED PREDICTIONS

I like your STATS YHW. Thanks for that.

I particularly liked the

bit!

D: !!

my profile is a mess also

is this because de new "textile markup" thing?
what should i do? wait or fix it , because is not gonna change?

That's realy bitter....I spent a lot of time to to simulate the current results with excel and to make my predictions look like this...
Unfortunately, I don't know how to convert easily excel data into a textile format...

OK, let's try it this way: STATS

UPDATE

I just get a triangled exclamation mark

So, be amazed... 8-)

UPDATED TEAM RESULTS and TOP PLAYERS

I'll be in Hungary next week. I hope that I will have an internet access (for free) in our hotel, otherwise I'm going to post the next update until after next week.

UPDATED TEAM RESULTS

UPDATED TEAM RESULTS and TOP PLAYERS

UPDATED TEAM RESULTS and TOP PLAYERS

UPDATED TEAM RESULTS and TOP PLAYERS

on your lands.

i'm carrying my handmade EWN board that i crafted myself.
it would be great to have a match with some of you in person.

kpato, your cruise line will not come to Hamburg?

Another time-out-player weakens the spanish team, so, there is barely no chance anymore to win the team tournament for the Equipo Español.
Three players have finished not only one single game in the last month, but more than the half of all games are finished now.
The advantage of the two best teams is great, but there is still a chance of 28% for the teams on positions 3 to 7 to reach at least a shared 1st place (assumed that the chance to win is always 50% for all remaining games). We have the best chance to win this tournament at the moment, nonetheless I have the feeling that the scientists are going to win this race...
UPDATED TEAM RESULTS and TOP PLAYERS

Im not going to Hamburg :(

i'm gonna post my itinerary soon.

I've changed the calculation of my team-tournament-predictions. Now, I take the current score of all remaining games into account to get more realistic cases. The chance to win the remaining single games (scores) is still 50% for both players (the ability of the players as well as the current position on the board is not taken into account). However, the game 'Jonny - FatPhil' is lost for us, it is aleady counted. The current situation on the boards moves the Scientists to the top position =>
UPDATED TEAM RESULTS and TOP PLAYERS

yeah... we gonna come through !!

So, here's the next update which looks a bit more attractive in comparison to the last snapshots. This is the Monte Carlo simulation that takes the current score (today at 18:30) on the boards into account, in contrast to the simulation WITHOUT the current scores.
In addition, here's another list which shows the remaining games that have the highest influence on the current ranking. In other words, these are the most important games/results or better said these are the BIG POINTS which would change the final results significantly.

> takes the current score on the boards into account

Do you assume the remaining rounds are each won/lost according to the probability implied by rating difference?

If the probability of winning a round is w and the rounds are independent, then the probability, p, of winning a 3-round match is p=w**2*(3-2*w). The ratings are base on p, from which w can be extracted.

Thanks for the hint, but which rating difference do you mean? The difference of the (ELO)-points of the individual players?
The current individual ratings/points of the players are not so easy to import into an automated calculation because they are not shown on the team tournament page in contrast to other tournaments. I would have to search them (automatically) on several other pages (47 players).
In my opinion, that would also not be so meaningful for EWN. There is a small advantage for the starting player and the rating points are varying too much because of the oversized k-factor. I'm calculating with an equal probability of 50% for all players and remaing rounds instead.
Yes, I know how to calculate the probability to win a 3-round/point-match from the probability of winning a single round, but I have not tried to calculate the probabilities to win exactly 4 and/or more than 4 of 8 games with respect to the individual team vs. team results, as well as not the probability to get a specific number of total points for the teams. I found it easier to simulate it quickly...
I'll put the predictions back on the child-profile as image. There will be also a download-link to find to a more attractive html version. I have no idea to convert this complex formatted html-file into a Textile format to publish the results in forum.

i feel like there is something wrong with time official results page.

There's nothing wrong with the official page. No team got points because no team vs. team match is completed...since this is not very helpful, I have calculated my own 'results'.

The game Jonny vs. Looser is won for us and we have good chances to turn the result against the EWN Scientists to a draw. If this happens we have good chances to win the whole tournament, but currently the Scientists are still ahead: UPDATE

We got the next time-out player, bad luck for team sobral. Maybe the team leaders should reorganize their teams before the next team tournament and should choose more reliable players the next time. Bad luck for team Serendipity that the first lost game against milesd was finished so quickly. The others got a good chance to win against him by waiting... ;) Unfortunately, that switches the chances to win significantly, the EWN Scientists got the best chance now - due to another inactive player... :( UPDATE

what says your statistics now , YHW? :)

Looks like a chance of approx 1/3 to get a shared 1st place as well as a chance of 40% for the scientists and 23% for you to win that tournament singly. dont forget team Italy.

No significant change, we are still waiting for team Italy...

My team falls deeper and deeper even if we have the best average performance. Apparently we won the wrong games. SERENDIPITY has the best chance to win this tournament at the moment: UPDATE

I could be wrong, but after our victory against Sobrai we have clinched it by now (this was not in the latest update calculated)

People of whom you thought they were dead are living longer...it's not over as longs as Italy still has the chance to get 13 points. You know, you must always calculate with Italy, also applies to soccer. . ;) UPDATE