dots.ch.35.1.1 predictions

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1
I've been requested to follow dots.ch.35.1.1 by RoRoRo the Bot

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page .
\* Already completed matches:

Games completed: 0/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | 7ics | 2323 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 48.62% | 1.42% | 0.69% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 41.78% | 1.41% | 1.04% |
| 3 | shinnosuke | 2075 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 3.07% | 0.61% | 26.36% |
| 4 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 2.26% | 0.37% | 33.44% |
| 5 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.17% | 0.25% | 46.19% |
| 6 | Christian K | 1982 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.63% | 0.14% | 58.61% |
| 7 | TUMRAK | 1960 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.38% | 0.12% | 66.34% |
| 8 | aldiris | 1939 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.25% | 0.07% | 72.09% |
| 9 | Loony | 1794 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0 | 95.25% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Ill bet 1 to 10,000 on Loony, any takers? :)

Good luck everyone!

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* _Rafael_ 0 - 2 7ics

Games completed: 1/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | 7ics | 2323 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 52.36% | 1.38% | 0.28% |
| 2 | Loony | 1794 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 94.08% |
| 3 | aldiris | 1939 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.26% | 0.07% | 68.57% |
| 4 | TUMRAK | 1960 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.34% | 0.09% | 62.92% |
| 5 | Christian K | 1982 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.50% | 0.13% | 56.71% |
| 6 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.10% | 0.26% | 46.17% |
| 7 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.53% | 0.28% | 40.46% |
| 8 | shinnosuke | 2075 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 2.96% | 0.64% | 29.41% |
| 9 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 40.25% | 1.33% | 1.40% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

:)

I suggest Rafael is banned from - at least - championship tiurnaments.

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Geoff Cameron 2 - 0 _Rafael_

Games completed: 2/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | 7ics | 2323 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 49.89% | 1.12% | 0.31% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | - | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 44.21% | 1.12% | 0.37% |
| 3 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | 0 | *0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.02% | 42.43% |
| 4 | Loony | 1794 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 93.93% |
| 5 | aldiris | 1939 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.18% | 0.05% | 68.80% |
| 6 | TUMRAK | 1960 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.31% | 0.08% | 62.81% |
| 7 | Christian K | 1982 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.47% | 0.13% | 56.29% |
| 8 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.88% | 0.24% | 46.38% |
| 9 | shinnosuke | 2075 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 2.67% | 0.58% | 28.67% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Same like in 4ir. _Raphael_ is resigning in games he may not win directly not to loose rating points. Imho he should compete - for such a great player it is a pitty.

GL everyone!

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Loony 2 - 0 _Rafael_

Games completed: 3/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Loony | 1794 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 82.92% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 43.76% | 1.22% | 0.43% |
| 3 | 7ics | 2323 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 49.98% | 1.26% | 0.30% |
| 4 | aldiris | 1939 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.20% | 0.04% | 66.10% |
| 5 | TUMRAK | 1960 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.37% | 0.10% | 60.43% |
| 6 | Christian K | 1982 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.52% | 0.17% | 54.45% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.02% | 0.25% | 43.24% |
| 8 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | *0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65.02% |
| 9 | shinnosuke | 2075 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 2.67% | 0.70% | 27.11% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1 Newly completed matches: * aldiris 0 - 2 7ics Games completed: 4/36 table{background:#ffe700;border:1}. {background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) | | 1 | 7ics | 2326 | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 0 | 51.92% | 1.20% | 0.16% | | 2 | Loony | 1794 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 82.61% | | 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 42.40% | 1.23% | 0.38% | | 4 | aldiris | 1936 | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.02% | 70.22% | | 5 | TUMRAK | 1960 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.33% | 0.08% | 60.44% | | 6 | Christian K | 1982 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.46% | 0.16% | 52.85% | | 7 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.91% | 0.27% | 42.81% | | 8 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 64.35% | | 9 | shinnosuke | 2075 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 2.52% | 0.73% | 26.19% | p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

eh rororo that post was uglay

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1 Newly completed matches: * Loony 2 - 0 aldiris Games completed: 5/36 table{background:#ffe700;border:1}. {background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) | | 1 | Loony | 1816 | - | _ | _ | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.06% | 0.03% | 64.16% | | 2 | 7ics | 2326 | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 51.75% | 1.18% | 0.17% | | 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 42.45% | 1.14% | 0.39% | | 4 | aldiris | 1914 | *0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 87.86% | | 5 | TUMRAK | 1960 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.29% | 0.08% | 59.85% | | 6 | Christian K | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.54% | 0.14% | 51.79% | | 7 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.92% | 0.30% | 42.76% | | 8 | shinnosuke | 2075 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 2.60% | 0.67% | 25.50% | | 9 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67.52% | p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1 Newly completed matches: * 7ics 2 - 0 TUMRAK Games completed: 6/36 table{background:#ffe700;border:1}. {background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) | | 1 | 7ics | 2329 | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | *2 | _ | _ | 6 | 0 | 53.91% | 1.01% | 0.07% | | 2 | Loony | 1816 | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 0 | 0.05% | 0.02% | 63.59% | | 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 40.95% | 1.02% | 0.36% | | 4 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 63.69% | | 5 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.89% | 0.19% | 40.54% | | 6 | aldiris | 1914 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 88.40% | | 7 | TUMRAK | 1957 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.05% | 0.03% | 65.54% | | 8 | Christian K | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.53% | 0.12% | 52.29% | | 9 | shinnosuke | 2075 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 2.48% | 0.63% | 25.53% | p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1 Newly completed matches: * shinnosuke 0 - 2 TUMRAK * aldiris 2 - 0 shinnosuke * Christian K 2 - 0 shinnosuke * shinnosuke 0 - 2 Loony * _Rafael_ 2 - 0 shinnosuke * shinnosuke 0 - 2 nietsabes * shinnosuke 0 - 2 Geoff Cameron * 7ics 2 - 0 shinnosuke Games completed: 14/36 table{background:#ffe700;border:1}. {background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) | | 1 | 7ics | 2329 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | 8 | 12 | 54.71% | 1.02% | 0.02% | | 2 | Loony | 1816 | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | 6 | 8 | 0.14% | 0.06% | 37.57% | | 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | 4 | 4 | 42.07% | 1.05% | 0.19% | | 4 | aldiris | 1914 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 81.22% | | 5 | TUMRAK | 1957 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0.07% | 0.09% | 50.35% | | 6 | Christian K | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0.75% | 0.34% | 38.99% | | 7 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 1.15% | 0.59% | 32.06% | | 8 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59.59% | | 9 | shinnosuke | 2075 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1 Newly completed matches: * aldiris 2 - 0 TUMRAK Games completed: 15/36 table{background:#ffe700;border:1}. {background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) | | 1 | 7ics | 2329 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 54.15% | 1.03% | 0.01% | | 2 | Loony | 1816 | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0.17% | 0.08% | 33.94% | | 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2304 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 42.58% | 1.07% | 0.19% | | 4 | aldiris | 1904 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | *2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 69.51% | | 5 | TUMRAK | 1938 | 0 | _ | _ | *0 | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 70.56% | | 6 | Christian K | 1986 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.71% | 0.37% | 36.95% | | 7 | nietsabes | 2016 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.23% | 0.63% | 30.49% | | 8 | _Rafael_ | 2053 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58.35% | | 9 | shinnosuke | 2075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Congratulations to geoff :) Very well done beating 7ics.

Agreed. My proudest moment was winning a game against Geoff. Congrats!

Well done!

I remember that :)

*Tournament: dots.ch.35.1.1 Newly completed matches: * nietsabes 2 - 0 TUMRAK * Loony 0 - 2 Geoff Cameron * nietsabes 0 - 2 Loony * 7ics 2 - 0 Loony * Geoff Cameron 2 - 0 Christian K * TUMRAK 0 - 2 Loony * TUMRAK 0 - 2 Christian K * aldiris 2 - 0 nietsabes * Geoff Cameron 2 - 0 7ics * Christian K 2 - 0 nietsabes * 7ics 2 - 0 nietsabes * Geoff Cameron 2 - 0 aldiris * nietsabes 2 - 0 _Rafael_ * _Rafael_ 0 - 2 Christian K * TUMRAK 2 - 0 _Rafael_ * nietsabes 0 - 2 Geoff Cameron * _Rafael_ 2 - 0 aldiris * Loony 2 - 0 Christian K <--- upset! * TUMRAK 0 - 2 Geoff Cameron * Christian K 2 - 0 aldiris * Christian K 0 - 2 7ics Games completed: 36/36 table{background:#ffe700;border:1}. {background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) | | 1 | Geoff Cameron | 2335 | - | *2 | *2 | *2 | *2 | *2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 16 | 112 | 100% | 0 | 0 | | 2 | 7ics | 2322 | *0 | - | *2 | *2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 3 | Loony | 1878 | *0 | *0 | - | *2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 12 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 4 | Christian K | 2034 | *0 | *0 | *0 | - | *2 | *2 | *2 | *2 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 5 | aldiris | 1888 | *0 | 0 | 0 | *0 | - | *2 | *0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 6 | nietsabes | 1983 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | *0 | - | *2 | *2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 100% | | 7 | _Rafael_ | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | *0 | *2 | *0 | - | *0 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 100% | | 8 | TUMRAK | 1932 | *0 | 0 | *0 | *0 | 0 | *0 | *2 | - | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100% | | 9 | shinnosuke | 2075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

wont make it to league 1 til next ch prolly :( cant wait to get that guaranteed perfect win tho...