dots.ch.29.1.1 predictions

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
I've been requested to follow dots.ch.29.1.1 by RoRoRo the Bot

For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page .
\* Already completed matches:

Games completed: 0/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | (2302) | -| _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 38.47% | 2.08% | 1.88% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | (2295)| _ | -| _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 35.72% | 2.05% | 2.46% |
| 3 | Smoores | (2212)| _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 15.86% | 1.74% | 8.37% |
| 4 | Marius Halsor | (2109)| _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 4.11% | 0.67% | 28.69% |
| 5 | JeanHebert | (2050)| _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 1.52% | 0.31% | 48.59% |
| 6 | Bernhard Herwig | (2007)| _ _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.75% | 0.13% | 63.92% |
| 7 | aldiris | (1987)| _ _ _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.45% | 0.13% | 70.87% |
| 8 | nietsabes | (1910)| _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | -| _ | 0 | 0 | 0.07% | 0.02% | 87.66% |
| 9 | Thnikkaman | (1908)| _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.08% | 0.02% | 87.56% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

What an interesting championship. Good luck to all participants, there are a lot of good players playing.

"I’ve been requested to follow dots.ch.29.1.1 by RoRoRo the Bot"

RoRoRo is schizophrenic?

Well, he does talk to himself, certainly!

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Thnikkaman 0 - 2 Marius Halsor

Games completed: 1/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Marius Halsor | (2116) | -| _ _ _ _ *2 _ _ _ | 2 | 0 | 5.39% | 0.87% | 21.87% |
| 2 | Bernhard Herwig | (2007)| _ | -| _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.61% | 0.17% | 63.07% |
| 3 | aldiris | (1987)| _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.48% | 0.11% | 69.39% |
| 4 | Geoff Cameron | (2298)| _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 35.86% | 2.19% | 2.66% |
| 5 | nietsabes | (1910)| _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.05% | 0.03% | 87.59% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | (1910)| *0 _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.01% | 91.82% |
| 7 | sghsal | (2302)| _ _ _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ | 0 | 0 | 37.42% | 2.17% | 2.60% |
| 8 | JeanHebert | (2050)| _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | -| _ | 0 | 0 | 1.51% | 0.27% | 50.95% |
| 9 | Smoores | (2212)| _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | - | 0 | 0 | 15.49% | 1.71% | 10.05% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* sghsal 2 - 0 Thnikkaman
\* Smoores 2 - 0 Thnikkaman

Games completed: 3/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Marius Halsor | (2116) | -| _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 _ | 2 | 0 | 4.67% | 0.83% | 21.72% |
| 2 | sghsal | (2305)| _ | -| _ _ _ _ _ *2 _ | 2 | 0 | 38.59% | 2.38% | 1.77% |
| 3 | Smoores | (2216)| _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ *2 _ | 2 | 0 | 16.42% | 1.94% | 6.66% |
| 4 | Bernhard Herwig | (2007)| _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.64% | 0.15% | 62.79% |
| 5 | aldiris | (1987)| _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.46% | 0.11% | 69.72% |
| 6 | Geoff Cameron | (2298)| _ _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ _ | 0 | 0 | 34.50% | 2.35% | 2.76% |
| 7 | nietsabes | (1910)| _ _ _ _ _ _ | -| _ _ | 0 | 0 | 0.07% | 0.01% | 86.79% |
| 8 | Thnikkaman | (1891)| 0 *0 *0 _ _ _ _ | -| _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.08% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | (2050)| _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.38% | 0.31% | 50.71% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Games completed: 4/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Marius Halsor | 2116 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 4.57% | 0.80% | 21.72% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2300 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 35.45% | 2.55% | 2.07% |
| 3 | sghsal | 2305 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 37.33% | 2.50% | 1.72% |
| 4 | Smoores | 2222 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 16.83% | 2.22% | 6.27% |
| 5 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.61% | 0.13% | 62.69% |
| 6 | aldiris | 1987 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.37% | 0.08% | 70.19% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1910 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.06% | 0.03% | 87.01% |
| 8 | Thnikkaman | 1889 | 0 | *0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.31% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.35% | 0.29% | 50.02% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

In the first table Thnikkaman has more chance to win than nietsabes, with lower rating. I guess it is just due to the random algorithm (I would not suspect that being blue/red and the chances on an upset being different in both (if so) would be taking in account by Rororo).

THere's a lot of noise in the final digit, certainly.
At the momnt, RoRoRo doesn't think there's any red/blue difference in D&B.

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Games completed: 5/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Marius Halsor | 2116 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 4.47% | 0.84% | 23.50% |
| 2 | aldiris | 1998 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.71% | 0.15% | 60.01% |
| 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2300 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 35.28% | 2.49% | 2.40% |
| 4 | sghsal | 2305 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 37.27% | 2.51% | 2.11% |
| 5 | Smoores | 2222 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 16.81% | 2.15% | 7.29% |
| 6 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.59% | 0.15% | 65.12% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1910 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.05% | 0.02% | 87.70% |
| 8 | Thnikkaman | 1881 | 0 | *0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.80% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.41% | 0.29% | 52.08% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* aldiris 2 - 0 Thnikkaman

Games completed: 5/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Marius Halsor | 2116 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 4.38% | 0.89% | 23.45% |
| 2 | aldiris | 1998 | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.71% | 0.18% | 59.79% |
| 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2300 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 35.50% | 2.53% | 2.31% |
| 4 | sghsal | 2305 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 37.20% | 2.51% | 2.24% |
| 5 | Smoores | 2222 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 16.68% | 2.19% | 7.16% |
| 6 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.62% | 0.15% | 65.36% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1910 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.06% | 0.02% | 87.74% |
| 8 | Thnikkaman | 1881 | 0 | *0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.77% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.34% | 0.30% | 52.19% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Marius Halsor 0 - 2 Smoores

Games completed: 6/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Smoores | 2234 | - | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 4 | 23.26% | 2.86% | 2.16% |
| 2 | Marius Halsor | 2105 | *0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 1.16% | 0.33% | 33.61% |
| 3 | aldiris | 1998 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0.60% | 0.14% | 58.45% |
| 4 | Geoff Cameron | 2300 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 33.54% | 2.90% | 2.19% |
| 5 | sghsal | 2307 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 36.04% | 2.94% | 2.00% |
| 6 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.48% | 0.13% | 63.55% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1910 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.04% | 0.02% | 87.27% |
| 8 | Thnikkaman | 1894 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.66% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.17% | 0.29% | 51.10% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Smoores 0 - 2 aldiris <--- upset!

Games completed: 7/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2025 | - | *2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 8 | 3.06% | 0.63% | 25.91% |
| 2 | Smoores | 2209 | *0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 4 | 4 | 9.72% | 1.40% | 10.23% |
| 3 | Marius Halsor | 2105 | _ | 0 | - | _ | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 1.96% | 0.44% | 40.82% |
| 4 | Geoff Cameron | 2300 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 38.66% | 1.80% | 3.04% |
| 5 | sghsal | 2307 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 41.36% | 1.83% | 2.62% |
| 6 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.71% | 0.12% | 69.94% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1910 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.08% | 0.03% | 90.03% |
| 8 | Thnikkaman | 1896 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.90% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.56% | 0.32% | 57.50% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Thnikkaman 2 - 0 nietsabes

Games completed: 8/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2025 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 12 | 3.35% | 0.70% | 23.99% |
| 2 | Smoores | 2209 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 8 | 9.83% | 1.31% | 9.50% |
| 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2300 | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 38.59% | 1.77% | 2.55% |
| 4 | Marius Halsor | 2105 | _ | 0 | _ | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 1.95% | 0.41% | 39.73% |
| 5 | sghsal | 2309 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 41.37% | 1.82% | 2.43% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1919 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | *2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.73% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1894 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | *0 | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.03% | 0 | 94.90% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.62% | 0.15% | 69.87% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 1.42% | 0.30% | 57.31% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* aldiris 2 - 0 Marius Halsor
\* Smoores 0 - 2 Geoff Cameron
\* Marius Halsor 0 - 2 sghsal

Games completed: 11/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2044 | - | _ | _ | 2 | *2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 6 | 16 | 5.03% | 1.11% | 5.69% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2311 | _ | - | _ | *2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 12 | 47.19% | 1.69% | 0.36% |
| 3 | sghsal | 2316 | _ | _ | - | _ | *2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 8 | 43.85% | 1.64% | 0.59% |
| 4 | Smoores | 2198 | 0 | *0 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 8 | 0.32% | 0.32% | 14.00% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2079 | *0 | _ | *0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 72.35% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1927 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.33% |
| 7 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.07% | 0.21% | 49.20% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.50% | 0.08% | 64.77% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1894 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 93.72% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Marius Halsor 2 - 0 nietsabes
\* nietsabes 0 - 2 aldiris
\* Geoff Cameron 2 - 0 nietsabes

Games completed: 14/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2053 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | *2 | 8 | 20 | 6.25% | 1.72% | 2.77% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2313 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | *2 | 6 | 12 | 47.67% | 2.14% | 0.33% |
| 3 | Smoores | 2198 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 12 | 0.13% | 0.24% | 14.35% |
| 4 | sghsal | 2316 | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 12 | 42.10% | 2.04% | 0.72% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2086 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | *2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.00% | 66.83% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1927 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.59% |
| 7 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.95% | 0.24% | 50.05% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.39% | 0.13% | 65.86% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1876 | *0 | *0 | _ | _ | *0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.49% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* nietsabes 0 - 2 Smoores

Games completed: 15/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2062 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 24 | 6.78% | 1.73% | 2.57% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2313 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 16 | 47.37% | 2.11% | 0.34% |
| 3 | Smoores | 2202 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | *2 | 6 | 12 | 0.18% | 0.29% | 11.88% |
| 4 | sghsal | 2316 | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 12 | 41.76% | 2.04% | 0.70% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2086 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 67.65% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1927 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.63% |
| 7 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 1.00% | 0.25% | 50.88% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 2007 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.40% | 0.09% | 66.49% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1872 | 0 | 0 | *0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.86% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* aldiris 2 - 0 Bernhard Herwig

Games completed: 16/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2077 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | *2 | _ | 10 | 24 | 10.40% | 2.83% | 0.03% |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2313 | _ | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 6 | 16 | 45.56% | 3.01% | 0.27% |
| 3 | Smoores | 2202 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 6 | 12 | 0.04% | 0.16% | 9.32% |
| 4 | sghsal | 2317 | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 4 | 12 | 39.68% | 2.93% | 0.49% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2086 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 62.75% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1933 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.50% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1872 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.81% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1994 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.06% | 0.02% | 80.35% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.97% | 0.17% | 47.47% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* sghsal 2 - 0 Smoores

Games completed: 17/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2077 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 10 | 24 | 7.81% | 3.57% | 0.01% |
| 2 | sghsal | 2328 | _ | - | _ | *2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | _ | 6 | 24 | 47.94% | 3.74% | 0.04% |
| 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2313 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 6 | 16 | 39.73% | 3.71% | 0.22% |
| 4 | Smoores | 2192 | 0 | *0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 14.23% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2086 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60.40% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1934 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.45% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1872 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.80% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1994 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.03% | 0.01% | 79.20% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.65% | 0.19% | 46.66% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Marius Halsor 2 - 0 Bernhard Herwig
\* nietsabes 0 - 2 sghsal

Games completed: 19/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2077 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 7.33% | 3.68% | 0.01% |
| 2 | sghsal | 2330 | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | *2 | 8 | 28 | 49.04% | 3.82% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2313 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 16 | 39.05% | 3.78% | 0.25% |
| 4 | Smoores | 2192 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 13.47% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2097 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | 2 | _ | *2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 45.80% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1934 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.87% |
| 7 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.68% | 0.18% | 48.70% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1983 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | *0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.01% | 0.00% | 91.89% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1870 | 0 | *0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Thnikkaman 2 - 0 Bernhard Herwig

Games completed: 20/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | aldiris | 2078 | - | _ | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 10 | 32 | 7.31% | 3.71% | 0.01% |
| 2 | sghsal | 2330 | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 8 | 32 | 49.08% | 3.88% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2313 | _ | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 6 | 20 | 39.00% | 3.87% | 0.20% |
| 4 | Smoores | 2192 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 11.53% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2097 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 44.34% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1930 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | *2 | _ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.76% |
| 7 | nietsabes | 1870 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1964 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | 0 | *0 | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.85% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.67% | 0.18% | 47.30% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* sghsal 2 - 0 aldiris

Games completed: 21/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2336 | - | *2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 10 | 52 | 58.05% | 2.35% | 0 |
| 2 | aldiris | 2072 | *0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 1.30% | 2.15% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Smoores | 2192 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 11.61% |
| 4 | Geoff Cameron | 2313 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 6 | 20 | 37.61% | 2.32% | 0.27% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2097 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 44.63% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1930 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.73% |
| 7 | JeanHebert | 2050 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0.67% | 0.19% | 46.60% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1964 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.16% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1870 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* sghsal 2 - 0 JeanHebert
\* Bernhard Herwig 0 - 2 Smoores

Games completed: 23/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2343 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | *2 | 12 | 56 | 60.74% | 2.72% | 0 |
| 2 | aldiris | 2072 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 10 | 36 | 0.50% | 2.60% | 0 |
| 3 | Smoores | 2198 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | _ | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 6.68% |
| 4 | Geoff Cameron | 2313 | _ | _ | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 6 | 24 | 36.02% | 2.71% | 0.16% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2097 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 40.69% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1928 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | Bernhard Herwig | 1958 | _ | 0 | *0 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | _ | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.94% |
| 8 | nietsabes | 1870 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2045 | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.07% | 53.53% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

RoRoRo the bot obviously is not reliable in predicting p(win)...
Assuming Geoff Cameron doesn't time out in any games, he basically won, sghsal leading after him.

RoRoRo neither presumes that players won't time out, nor looks into the state of any game in progress.

Were it to look into a game in progress, analyse it flawlessly, and make a prediction based on the result it foresaw, then it would possibly leak information to one or both of the participants in that game. That would be a *bad thing*. It's discussing a game in progress. Which is what you've just done, presumably about 5 games.

Don't do that, please.

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* aldiris 0 - 2 Geoff Cameron
\* Bernhard Herwig 2 - 0 nietsabes

Games completed: 25/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2347 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 56 | 57.10% | 0.12% | 0 |
| 2 | aldiris | 2066 | 0 | - | *0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 10 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Geoff Cameron | 2319 | _ | *2 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 8 | 44 | 42.75% | 0.12% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Smoores | 2198 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 8 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 6.86% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2097 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 41.06% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1928 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | Bernhard Herwig | 1970 | _ | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | *2 | _ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.02% |
| 8 | nietsabes | 1858 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | *0 | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 9 | JeanHebert | 2045 | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0.02% | 0.08% | 54.04% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Aw, FairyTail, now Geoff Cameron will make a thorough deep analysis of our current game position and probably find the winning move -.- And I relied so much on him not being motivated enough to start thinking over this complex position - due to my vastly higher rating and Rororo's intimidating prediction.

@sghsal: I thought that only chess players were good at finding excuses of losing.

opsy :O
My mistake!!! won't do that again O_O...sincerely sorry
btw, I was hoping u would win sghsal :D (still hoping that u will somehow)

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Smoores 2 - 0 JeanHebert

Games completed: 26/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2347 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 12 | 60 | 56.82% | 0.05% | 0 |
| 2 | aldiris | 2066 | 0 | - | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Smoores | 2207 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0.11% |
| 4 | Geoff Cameron | 2319 | _ | 2 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 48 | 43.13% | 0.05% | 0.03% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2097 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 38.52% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1928 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | Bernhard Herwig | 1970 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97.64% |
| 8 | JeanHebert | 2036 | 0 | _ | *0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63.70% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1858 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* nietsabes 0 - 2 JeanHebert

Games completed: 27/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2347 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 12 | 64 | 57.23% | 0.06% | 0 |
| 2 | aldiris | 2066 | 0 | - | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Smoores | 2207 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0.17% |
| 4 | Geoff Cameron | 2319 | _ | 2 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 48 | 42.71% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2097 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 43.83% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1928 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | JeanHebert | 2044 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | - | _ | *2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 57.96% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1970 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.01% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1850 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | *0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

@FairyTail: Thanks for your support! :)
But this time Geoff Cameron played better, so he deserves winning. Even if he would indeed time out, everyone would still think of him as the real winner in the future.

@Ypercube: Very flattering, since I never had that much opportunity to exercise finding excuses of losing... No, honestly, I am not into jokes. There is no other 'excuse' for losing a game than having messed up less than your opponent, as was the case here.

@FatPhil: If you care so much about not leaking information to the participants of games that are oviously over, you possibly should not do a public statement that confirms FairyTail's opinion about the outcomes and specify this by telling the number of concerned games (taken into account that it is clear to which games you refer as well as the fact that there are more possibilities for Geoff to win the championship than winning each single game).

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Bernhard Herwig 0 - 2 sghsal

Games completed: 28/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2352 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 68 | 58.44% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | aldiris | 2066 | 0 | - | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Smoores | 2207 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0.13% |
| 4 | Geoff Cameron | 2319 | _ | 2 | 2 | - | _ | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 8 | 48 | 41.56% | 0 | 0.02% |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2097 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 44.34% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1914 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | Bernhard Herwig | 1967 | *0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.12% |
| 8 | JeanHebert | 2044 | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | _ | _ | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56.38% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1850 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

@sghsal - whilst you may appear to be a vastly superior D&B player, like some other apparently highly skilled (but apparently sad) D&B players here in the past you display a disturbingly turbid level of brain activity in some some directions. I've seen St. Petersburg tap water be clearer than your train of thought.

You are apparently unable to detect that there are 5 underscores in the line:

4 Geoff Cameron 2313 _ _ 2 - _ 2 _ 2 _ 6 24 36.02% 2.71% 0.16%

If you *can't even count to five*, how the fuck do you get so skillful at Dots & Boxes? Are you cheating?

Just askin', not accusin' or anything...

Well, first of all, sorry for raging. After reading my previous post I noticed it sounds kinda aggressive.

I don't like discussing a game in progress either, but when they are as good as over, it's ok (like it was the case in my game against Geoff).
Also, stating that someone will win the ch. does not leak information about a specific game situation. It is actually the same as Rororo makes, a prediction that does not need to be true necessarily.
My point was that Geoff might lose games and can still win the ch. Let's suppose we trust in FairyTail's statement, then your post about the 5 games (if at all) leaks even more information (namely that FairyTail is right as well as that Geoff wins each of his games).

If there is still error in reasoning, I appreciate you telling me about it :)

I hope I stopped some upcoming flame war by calming down...

Btw you seem to be used to accusing 'superior' (whereas I wouldn't label myself as superior since statistics hardly tell truth and I haven't played many games here) players to cheat: http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/forum/topic2.jsp?forum=110&topic=117. Thus I don't think much of you 'asking' me if cheating.

> I don’t like discussing a game in progress either

*THEN DON'T DO IT*. Sheesh.

> Also, stating that someone will win the ch. does not leak information about a specific game situation. It is actually the same as Rororo makes, a prediction that does not need to be true necessarily.

Absolutely, totally, 100% incorrect. RoRoRo *does not look at the game state at all* (except in EWN, where he takes the current frame score into account, which is openly available information, and is independent of the state of the frame currently in play), yet a judgement that the game is "as good as over" is one made *entirely from looking at the game state*.

If you can't tell they difference between those situations, then I am less surprised that you can't count up to 5 now.

> Btw you seem to be used to accusing ‘superior’ players to cheat

How strange that you should have remembered precisely that thread. How strange that you should have registered your account just at the time when those sock-puppets were making themselves unpopular. How strange that the only game played by you, and FairyTail, and Happy/sweet kid, was dots and boxes. How strange that both you and they have a passive aggressive streak a mile wide.

If you want to persuade me that you two aren't the same person, and aren't the same as the previous pair of cheaters, would you please stop being so bloody similar to them.

Although I wouldn't use the exact same words, I agree with FatPhil in the core of the issue: Ongoing games should NOT be discussed. At all. Even if the outcome is obvious. And claiming that a certain player will win the championship when five of his/her games are yet unfinished is definitely discussing ongoing games.

Do not pervert my words please. Rororo is making a prediction based on the tournament table and FairyTail made a prediction based on a game state. I agree that an ongoing game should not be discussed, but to guess which player will win can't be that bad.
Beside this your behaviour is very childish (resigning current game against me probably coz of this thread, calling me cheater, flaming/insulting me apart from topic, don't answer my detailed explanation of my argument and finally talking some nonsense (at least to me) about some cheaters in the past).
Moreover I calmed down obviously, while you continue raging for whatever reason.
I actually don't care about persuading you that I am not any of the persons mentioned.
If I seemed too aggressive first, note that I already apologized. In fact atm it is you who is aggressive.

Btw: You are paranoid, just read your own words: 'how strange that the only game played by you, and FairyTail, and Happy/sweet kid, was dots and boxes'. lol

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Geoff Cameron 2 - 0 Marius Halsor

Games completed: 29/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2355 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 68 | 55.30% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2325 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | *2 | 2 | _ | _ | 2 | 10 | 60 | 44.70% | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | aldiris | 2066 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Smoores | 2207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2091 | 0 | *0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 52.48% |
| 6 | Thnikkaman | 1912 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 7 | JeanHebert | 2044 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | _ | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48.67% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1967 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98.85% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1850 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Your reading comprehension is very poor. I have not perverted your words at all. I have quoted them - if you consider what I have quoted is perverse, then blame the original author.

> but to guess which player will win can’t be that bad.

Yes it can. When that guess is based on examining the game state, then it's *discussing a game in progress*. How can you have the gall to write a sentence that ends with the above but begins "I agree that an ongoing game should not be discussed"? The lack of logical sophistication that displays is shocking.

> calling me cheater

Again, your reading comprehension is still in primary school level. I have simply stated that your behaviour has mimicked the sock-puppetry, the attitude, and the results of prior cheats. Your spelling and grammar are much better, that's the only thing that sets you apart currently. FairyTail's, however, isn't. So indeed you might not even be sock puppets, just two people with the same desperate lack of common sense.

> aggressive

Guilty as charged. I have no patience for illogic at all.

And if I would indeed lack reading comprehension or the like? Would this be reason to talk to me this way? Finally what is your problem with FairyTail? It seems to me you have a violent aversion to players playing only Dots and Boxes.

Back to constructive:

Maybe I wasn't very clear. Discussing a game in progress means talking about lines and possible moves. This is indeed a bad thing in my opinion because a player should find his moves on his own.
However, tell me what kind of information does a prediction about which player will win leak to the participants? Well, sure, the player who can supposedly win, may think a bit more about the current position (assumed he didn't know a winning move before), but he still have to come up with a possible solution by himself.

I know on this point our opinions differ, however I think I have the right to both have this opinion and stating it... Admittedly the way I stated it was a bit offensive, but hey, isn't it true, that FairyTail didn't even refer to the outcome of any single game but rather to Geoff winning the championship at all? Isn't it true that by telling the number of affected games(5) you imply that Geoff is winning each of his remaining games? That's what I meant by saying you leak even more information...

Further opinions are appreciated.

Lastly I cannot deny myself the following quote (by FatPhil) taken from the DVONN-Forum:
"I’ll 'fess up to occasionally (maybe 5-10 games total, and only against a few top players) asking RoRoRo to evaluate the board for me when I think I’ve got a losing position, to let me know if he thinks I’ve got a possible win or not. If he contradicts my presumtions and says I’ve got a win, then I’ll look much harder at the situation."
Do you notice anything?

wow!
No offense, but people like FatPhil is one of the reasons, besides LG server going down, that i am quitting playing in such environment.
What surprises me the most is the attitude of the rest players.
I have clearly apologized for my mistake in hinting the outcome of games, and believe me, I was an accident. If i could, i would have deleted my post and the game would have continued on normally.
But trolls like FatPhil had to come on raging on every person who talks against him, while other players are either agreeing with him, or ignoring the issue that such a player has been tolerated for past 6 years.
I know that FatPhil has contributed a lot in forums, and in this site generally (and thanks for that), but please do grow up and stop being a kid who lashes his anger at anyone who dares to stand up against you.
Sghsal did not say you were discussing the games through rororoBot's prediction. He was only stating that u confirmed my hint by agreeing to that fact i gave away the games. Instead of saying that i gave away 5 games, you should have bluffed and said "the outcomes are unknown yet, but thanks for your guess" or something along these lines and warned me in private about my mistake.
And since i already quit this site except team games (which i might consider taking recent events into account), i will let u know this:
Sghsal is not me, we are both different people.
And as to ur accusations of either of us being happy/sweet kid, then i am those people.
However, ur 2nd accusation of me cheating is false by those accounts. If u check my game history, i never once played myself or boosted in any manner. The only reason i can think that u say i cheat is because u lost so many games against me and u can't comprehend that u can't even win a single game against me (excluding games that i resigned myself).
With this kind of attitude of yours fatphil, i wouldnt be surprised if any D&B players will play at LG in future, except people who can shockingly tolerate u.
ps. Fatphil, u actually resigned those games against sghsal cause of this? Wow! u r such a brat! and please dont lash ur anger on me now :( I sincerely apologize for all my mistakes (which was making multiple accounts, but not cheating, and beating ur arse in all D&B games...if i knew you would cry over losing and accusing me of cheating cause u cant handle the fact that u actually lost, i would have purposely lost few games to make u happy)

Can we please all get along?

Please?

I'm with Jean Hebert on this one. Ich stimme mit Jean Hebert ein. Je sui avec Jean Hebert.

ME 2 SGHSAL:
"""
Your spelling and grammar are much better, that’s the only thing that sets you apart currently. FairyTail’s, however, isn’t. So indeed you might not even be sock puppets ...
"""

FT:
"""
And as to ur accusations of either of us being happy/sweet kid, then i am those people.
"""

@Sghsal - I apologise for my aggressive approach. To be honest, your grammar and spelling set you apart from FairyTail and the others right from the start. That is why I desperately tried to use innuendo rather than direct accusation. I had no evidence of anything, just gut feel - or, as you might call it, paranoia. Something smelt wrong. Your immediate tag-teaming with FairyTail brought you into the crosshairs, as sock-puppetry is a classic modus operandi. I also knew that provoking happy/sweet/sad/whatever kid was a good way of getting them to blow their cover. Whilst I'm happy I smoked out one notorious historical miscreant, I'm sorry that you were caught in the crossfire.

And I resigned because you'd won that game more than 5 moves back, as you'd shaped the game in exactly the opposite way that I am comfortable with against stronger players.

However, I still think you are just plain wrong when you say things like
"FairyTail didn’t even refer to the outcome of any single game". He/she did. He/she made an assertion about the outcome of *every single remaining GC game* with that statement. How can you not see that?

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* JeanHebert 2 - 0 Thnikkaman

Games completed: 30/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2355 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 72 | 54.94% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2325 | _ | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 10 | 60 | 45.06% | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | aldiris | 2066 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Smoores | 2207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2091 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 65.90% |
| 6 | JeanHebert | 2054 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | - | *2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34.93% |
| 7 | Thnikkaman | 1902 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | *0 | - | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1967 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.17% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1850 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Fatphil, i could have pretended i was not those people, but i am honest and i said so. If u asked directly to me, i would have told you. You didnt have to go through this whole ordeal and embarrass yourself.

And theres nothing wrong with me being sweetkid/happykid, cause as i have mentioned, i did nothing wrong to hide my identity.

Also, just move on already. If i come after 10 years, u will be still on accusing people of being happy/sweetkid, which is honestly, very sad.

More so, even if i dont speak well as u do or sgshal, i am better than you in D&B, from maturity wise, and overall character. You could be Einstein for all i care, but your character is analogous to hitler (or someone of equal stature)

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Geoff Cameron 2 - 0 sghsal

Games completed: 31/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | sghsal | 2338 | - | *0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 72 | 1.63% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Geoff Cameron | 2342 | *2 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | _ | 2 | 12 | 88 | 98.37% | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | aldiris | 2066 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Smoores | 2207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2091 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 65.87% |
| 6 | JeanHebert | 2054 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34.87% |
| 7 | Thnikkaman | 1902 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1967 | 0 | _ | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.26% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1850 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

*Tournament: dots.ch.29.1.1
Newly completed matches:
\* Geoff Cameron 2 - 0 Bernhard Herwig

Games completed: 32/36
table{background:#ffe700;border:1}.
{background:#ff8000}. |_. N |_. Player |_. Rating |_. 1 |_. 2 |_. 3 |_. 4 |_. 5 |_. 6 |_. 7 |_. 8 |_. 9 |_. Score |_. Son |_. p(win) |_. p(draw) |_. p(down) |
| 1 | Geoff Cameron | 2345 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | *2 | 2 | 14 | 92 | 100% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | sghsal | 2338 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | aldiris | 2066 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Smoores | 2207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Marius Halsor | 2091 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | _ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 65.90% |
| 6 | JeanHebert | 2054 | _ | 0 | _ | 0 | _ | - | 2 | _ | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34.10% |
| 7 | Thnikkaman | 1902 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | Bernhard Herwig | 1964 | *0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | _ | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 9 | nietsabes | 1850 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-9 and thus being demoted

Well FatPhil, while I personally may forgive, I really have to agree with most of FairyTail's points, although I wouldn't use the exact same words. I don't think you are a bad or mean person or anything, but the way FairyTail was treated here in the past is enough reason for raging at you. And to be honest, you really embarressed yourself in the course of this thread.

In my opinion it's a pity that FairyTail will quit, since she is a gain for Dots and Boxes in general. Now I also suggest you get along with each other, FatPhil stopping his childish paranoia and FairyTail stopping to rage at him. Sure, that's maybe too much to ask for, but if you won't accept, please do not present yourself as kind of a hero that "smoked out one notorious historical miscreant" (quote). I could say a lot more right now, but I leave it at that in hopes that everyone get his/her sense's back.

I don't think there is much left to say about me... While I tried to stay constructive I realized the discussion has never been about me or predicting the outcomes of games.

Look, I side with FairyTail and we are still different people. The time has come to dispose of prejudices.

Finally, since Rororo claims Geoff will win at 100%, I think I can congratulate him in public for winning the championship again and especially having very well played in our game, disproving my successful opening shape and giving me no chance.