Fairly unimportant change to RoRoRo's astonishment levels

So far he's reported on over 13000 games, and commented on just over 500:

games upset major astonishing
13236 334 152 33

I have decided that major upsets are too common. I'm aiming for 1/3 the number of upsets, and 3* the number of astonishings.

And I've wiped the stats, starting from 0 0 0 0 again.

So if anyone things that his surprised outbursts are still too frequent, or whatever, shout now, they can easily be tweaked again before too many stats are gathered from these new settings.

Is it just based on the ratings difference between the players?

Can a draw be an upset?

Is 4:1 in StreetSoccer treated like 5:0?

Hmm... I guess the number of ratings points transferred is a good measure of surprise.

4:1 is indeed different from 5:0. Ratings point transfer is indeed quite a good measure, I didn't think of that metric. Mine is another simple function based on expected score and actual score, and IIRC draws never yield surprise in mine. Yours might be better though, I think, I might make a quick tweak.

However, in an X vs. X match, then a 16 point transfer is nothing of interest in drawless games. So in a 0 vs. infinity match, a draw will only be a 16 point transfer on the upset if there's a draw. So even yours makes draws never surprising in the same way mine does.

Thanks for the ideas, though - I'll definitely revisit my formula, and draw a few diagrams.

On a different topic, but related, concerning roro's championship predictions...currently roro stops posting predictions after the winner is determined, but I think it would be a good recap if roro also posted the final crosstable when the last game is done...

I think posting all the way trhough would be fine.

He briefly used to post all the way through, but people commentted about too much thread churn, so I cut it back. He does have an RSS feed for those that want more!