In 500 games, guess the players' nationality

Public forum discussion.

General

#1 · erratic

30 Apr 2013

The game does not exist yet:

http://littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=1539600

Guess the two players nationalities!

1 point for one guessed right,
10 points for both guessed right. (order is irrelevant)

My guess:

Germany vs. USA

#3 · Richard Malaschitz

30 Apr 2013

More probably is USA vs. USA
Demographics of LittleGolem users:

19% USA
9% Germany
8% France, Poland
5% United Kingdom
4% Spain, Netherlands
3% Romania, Canada, Czech Republic, Taiwan, Russia, China
2% Norway, Italy
1% Slovakia, Sweden, Belgium, Brazil, Finland, Denmark, Australia, Portugal, Hungary, Ireland, Argentina, Switzerland, Japan

#4 · Dryad

30 Apr 2013

That's interesting if you wanna get the pairing right, but the probability of USA vs USA is only 3,6% and I won't rely on that. USA vs. Germany is the best choice in my opinion, since it's way more probable to guess one of both nationalities right, if you choose different ones.

Unknown (that "?") vs. Poland

#5 · Hjallti

30 Apr 2013

If you assume the best tactics is to pick to nations, it is not clear from the demographics that USA vs Germany would be the best choice. It is possible that due to the games Polish people choose compared to Germans that the latter play less against US-citizens than the former....

#6 · Dryad

30 Apr 2013

Well, I don't really care about pairings, because it's unlikely that you guess it right and it doesn't really matter whether you choose Germany vs. USA or Poland vs. USA. Both cases are extremely rare.
I would try to get the single point by chosing the two countries with the largest number of active players. Well, the 8% of Polish players might be more active than the 9% of German players... this would matter indeed.
But it's more about luck than tactics anyways :P

#7 · erratic

30 Apr 2013

I didn't even know the demographics when I voted. I was just trying to choose countries I see frequently. Just luck.

#8 · Dvd Avins

1 May 2013

If it's 19.0% and 9.0% then all else being equal, the odds are actually better of USA vs. Germany than US vs. US. You have double the chance of being right when you pick different countries, because either country can come first. (2 permutations per combination.) And double 9.0 > 19.0.

#9 · Art Duval

1 May 2013

@Dvd: Thanks for pointing out this missing factor of 2, which I have to admit I overlooked myself when i first saw this problem.

But, umm, double 9.0 is still (slightly) less than 19.0.

#10 · David J Bush

1 May 2013

As a greedy American, I feel I must spoil the fun here. Points? I MIGHT get POINTS for all my hard work? Where's the MONEY bay bay. Where's the numbered Swiss account. Where are my chips and dip? That's where it's at. It's hard work dodging butterflies. The observer influences the observed through the act of observation. And what about fake nationalities. Someone might time their own game to land on the desired URL, set up an obscure nationality, bet the long odds, and take us all to the cleaners! We need robot police. You have to think these things through.

#11 · Christian K

1 May 2013

Fun idea. I say France vs Spain.

#12 · MarleysGhost

1 May 2013

I'll take USA v France.

My guesses for what game it will be:
1.Go
2.StreetSoccer
3.Chess

And who will win the game?
I predict the first player. (The player who interacts with the board first, whether the interaction is a "move" or not. E.g. the player making the initial placement in Polyomino, the player who chooses a set of tiles in Wyps numeric)

#13 · Dvd Avins

2 May 2013

Oops. Thanks, Art. I guess my math head to too far up in the clouds to do arithmetic.

#14 · erratic

2 May 2013

Sweden vs. Saudi Arabia!!

0 points everybody (and zero dollars). Not easy.

#15 · David J Bush

2 May 2013

Dvd might still be right, because of rounding. For example, If 19% US is actually 18.51% and 9% Germany is actually 9.49%, then 2*9.49% is 18.98% which is greater than US actual.