When we'll Reach 1000000 Game??

hmmm, i guess in 6 months??

Any guesses?

littlegolem...is born on 2002 i think so...

2002 - 2006 (600.000)

mmm

600.000 /4 = 150.000

i think..in 2 years :)

Well we had more that 50,000 game last month, and don't forget we have much more players that 2002 :)

with the last DOwn of littlegolem

a lot of players...quit to LG

i'd say 1 year or 1 year 6 months

December 4, 2008.

March 12, 2009.

August 11, 2007.

Please ignore this message.

28 Oct. 2006 8:50 UTC:

Players/Games: 12150/599984

December 26, 2008.

August 30, 2007 :)

April 30, 2007!!

October 1, 2008.

(We had 30,000 games the last 2 months, and it is probably increasing...)

November 6, 2008 ~

The dates since the big crash are not too useful:

Game 550.000 started 2006-05-11

570.000 2006-09-01

590.000 2006-10-09

I bet in summer (of northern hemisphere) there's less activity.

Looking at longer ranges (cmp. game 300.000 starting 2005-01-25, how did the Tasmanian (rather Norwegian) Devil do that trick ?)

--> less than 2 years from now: 2008-09-10 (10-Sep-2008)

http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=333328

OK, kpato:

it's not the most important topic EVER ;), but how did you do it?

This ( http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=602079 ) is done differently, I assume.

Was it allowed to play oneself in non-rated games, in those days?

Yes it was allowed to invite yourself and yourself could accept!

Only both of your moves turned out to have the same color.

Just to make this clear again:

game number 1000000 will not be the 1000000th game. So if you want to get game number 1000000 you should try a bit earlier then if you want the 1000000th game.

(Before some people start discussing this... there are some numbers lower than 1000 that not seem to be game numbers, probably richard used them to test play the site, then removed them but without re-using the numbers.)

February 4th, 2008

i was calculating wrong, I can say:

June 10th, 2008!!

Pawel Grabowski................. 08/11/2007

Michal Piszczalka(piszczyk). 08/30/2007

Hjallti.................................... 02/04/2008

Nagy Fathy (revised)........ 06/10/2008

Michael X............................. 09/10/2008

György Csizmadia............... 10/01/2008

kpato................................... 10/27/2008

Robin.................................. 11/06/2008

Ed Collins........................... 12/04/2008

Theo van der Storm............ 12/26/2008

Alan Hensel........................ 03/12/2009

About half of the predictions (five) believe it will occur between early October and late December of 2008.

if we start aproximately 18-20.000 games per month then we will reach game number 1,000,000 at around mid-July, 2008.

So I say 07/15/2008

Date

Game #  # of days

---------- ------- ---------

07/08/2004 200,000         -

10/27/2004 250,000       111

01/25/2005 300,000        90

05/03/2005 350,000        98

08/19/2005 400,000       108

11/25/2005 450,000        98

02/26/2006 500,000        93

05/11/2006 550,000        74

Based on the past 2.5 years, we are averaging 50,000 games every 96 days, or

520.83 per day.

Other, possibly more accurate estimates:

----------------------------------------

From Game #350,000 through Game #550,000:

200,000 games played over a 373 day period, an average of 536 per day.

From Game #400,000 through Game #550,000:

150,000 games played over a 265 day period, an average of 566 per day.

From Game #450,000 through Game #550,000:

100,000 games played over a 167 day period, an average of 598 per day.

From Game #500,000 through Game #550,000:

50,000 games played over a 93 day period, an average of 537 per day.

From Game #557,036 through Game #623476:

66,440 games played over a 130 day period, an average of 511 per day.

From Game #587,985 through Game #623476:

35,491 games played over a 62 day period, an average of 572 per day.

Based upon THOSE figures, it looks as if we are averaging more than 520 games

per day, possibly closer to 550. (As you can see, during some periods it's more

than 550, but during other periods it's less.)

So, based upon a rate of approximately 550 games player per day, we will reach

our 1,000,000th game on October 19, 2008.

1,000,000 (goal) - 623,476 (current game) = 376,524 (# to goal)

376,524 (# to goal) / 550 (# of games per day) = 684 days from now

December 5, 2006 (today) + 684 days = October 19, 2008

That's my final estimate. (Slightly revised from my original estimate of early

December, 2008.)

Richard, Forum preview needed PLEASE.

Since I think we're continusing to pick up speed, albeit gradually, I think it will be sooner than Ed does. I'll go with (using formatting readabel by non-Americans) 5 March, 2008.

Ed,

the fun is the assumptions, not the calculation itself. Feel free to revise your estimate any time later. I hope I myself can resist for a year with a refined estimate.

Up to now, I'm happy your revision just confirms:

Before end Oct 2008

I used similar method just fewer numbers than you. Main difference, like Dvd's estimate, we will grow a bit: Thus my 10-Sep-2008 .

---

Re formatting/preview: just remember a new line entered here is translated to a additional to any formatting you add manually. Or you could start a "format test, don't read ;)" thread. I love it the way it is: Simple but nearly no restrictions ;)

my guess is August 23rd , 2008 :)

One more guess: early morning, 24th of July, 2008.

Sure, somewhere between 10:00 AM and 10:30 AM :-)

... and we should make sure we bet on the start time of game # 1000000.

(Can be verified later).

As Hijalti already mentioned, it will be slightly before the line on top, currently saying " Players/Games: 12445/623650 " will reach the one million.

And lets soon agree on how to calculate accuray vs. prediction period ;)

sorry:

Hijalti --> Hjallti

accuray --> accuracy

any more typo's ?

"lets" should be "let's".

I don't mind the incomplete or sloppy sentences :-)

kpato................................... 10/27/2008

wow...

im a magician.

kpato,

I guess this is Ed's interpreteation of your " i think..in 2 years :) "

posted 2006-10-27

Good starting point for other guesses!

---

Theo, if you really did not mind, you should not have mentioned it :-)

Yes, more *typos*. :-)

"[b]2006-10-27[/b]

kpato littlegolem...is born on 2002 i think so...

2002 - 2006 (600.000)

mmm

600.000 /4 = 150.000

i think..in 2 years :)"

-----------------

"32 hours ago

Michael X Ed,

the fun is the assumptions, not the calculation itself. Feel free to revise your estimate any time later. I hope I myself can resist for a year with a refined estimate.

[b]Up to now, I'm happy your revision just confirms:

Before end Oct 2008[/b] "

> Theo, if you really did not mind, you should not have mentioned it :-)

I accept your comment.

There is also another side to this:

http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/forum/topic2.jsp?forum=140&topic=38

Sank you ferry mutch, Theo !

I should ask you for perfect translations, when in doubt. Unfortunately, I'm not in doubt when necessary.

if in this momento

LG is fixed up

wee have a BOOOOM of games...

540 games of MC tournaments

and 594 games of RT tournaments

if we think in the second rounds

and other situations

we can add 100 games.

so

540

594

100

1234 games

--------

634467

+ 1234

------

635701

maybe this

change a little

our pronostics..and predictions

bump

Pawel Grabowski................. 08/11/2007

Michal Piszczalka(piszczyk). 08/30/2007

Hjallti.................................... 02/04/2008

Nagy Fathy (revised)........ 06/10/2008

Michael X............................. 09/10/2008

György Csizmadia............... 10/01/2008

kpato................................... 10/27/2008

Robin.................................. 11/06/2008

Ed Collins........................... 12/04/2008

Theo van der Storm............ 12/26/2008

Alan Hensel........................ 03/12/2009

bloke.................... 07/15/2008

dvd avins................... 03/05/2008

michael x.................09/10/2008

eduard ...................08/23/2008

ypercube .......................07/254/2008

add your guess

I put 24/7/2008, not 07/254/2008

07/254/2008 would imply a new Gregorian reform. Gregorio? :)

08/08/08

Pick European, US or Japanese style as you please.

Note that in my December 5, 2006 post in this topic, I revised my original estimate to October 19, 2008.

No problem, Tim. Tomorrow I'll start a new reform: 358 months, and month 254th will have 7 days :-)

i started the topic ( in another line) so i need to guess too i think.... 02/02/2009

Abigail has beaten me to the guess I'd have wanted, so I'll go for 8-Oct 08 instead.