When will littlegolem reach 2,000,000 games?

I'm changing my guess to 2019-02-08...

Here are the new budgets errors in days ( 2*sqrt(delta)):

mmKall for 2018-06-05 05:06:20.1: 26.46

Ypercube for 2018-08-16: 25.92

Carroll for  2019-02-08: 30.79

Purgency for 2019-02-01: 30.33

The_Burglar for 2018-08-08 08:08:08: 30.98

Gamesorry for 2019-01-09 01:01:09 : 35.38

46k-

45k-

41k-

40k ish

36k-

The predictions for 08-2018 will be hard to fulfill...

4 hours to go on my misprediction would need 10 new games every second, maybe too much for the server to handle

Need a new game every 20 seconds to reach mine (2018-08-16). Time to write a bot perhaps ;)

Time to change your guesses perhaps ;)

Yes still plenty of space left in 2019...

2019-01-19 20:19:01 is my new guess based on number of games (not game number)

Here are the new budgets errors in days ( 2*sqrt(delta)):

mmKall for 2018-06-05 05:06:20.1: 26.46

Ypercube for 2018-08-16: 25.92

Carroll for  2019-02-08: 30.79

Purgency for 2019-02-01: 30.33

The_Burglar for 2019-01-19 20:19:10: 25.53

Gamesorry for 2019-01-09 01:01:09 : 35.38

will 9 seconds earlier make a difference? :01 instead of :10 (I spot mistakes quickly, maybe from computer programming in the 80's with z80's)

yes, your prediction error is now 25.5299999999999999999999999999999999

prediction budge*

I don't take the time of the day into account for the budget as I use dateutils.ddiff 2018-08-09 2019-01-19, but when we do |budget-error|, we can take it into account...

Well I could:

dateutils.ddiff -f "%Hh, %Mm, %Ss" -i "%Y-%m-%d:%H:%M:%S" 2018-08-09:00:00:01 2019-01-19:20:19:01

3932h, 19m, 0s

So your new budget would be 25.6005, but I don't know the time where the other predictions were made.

32k4

1973846 highest game number just 26154 more to game number 2 million

1970446 just 29554 more tooooooooooooooooooooooooo reach 2 million

I think we should consider the number on the home page:

1,970,867

Games

now

highest game number right now is 1974598 while the front page shows 1,971,198. Why is there a difference of 3k?

And I agree we should use the front page number. Its easier to check and also the thing I have been looking at so far.

Also, 10k games in the past month? Wtf happened there, thats alot.

Oh, it was more about 8k, I checked wrong. So 30/8 = 3.75. Still alot, if the pace is kept it would finish late december

@purgency i clicked on the game you linked - and looks as if someone is obviously running a bot v bot there...

That seems to be the case, also 800 games monthly just by those 2 players/bots

The discrepancy is mentioned in some other thread, but I don't really have the time to dig it out right now.  IIRC, there was a server problem which caused quite a few game numbers to be skipped over.

~25k

geez, 9 days ago i wrote the number of games was 1971198.

How did this increase by 4k in 9 days.

At this pace it will be done in under 2 months

View more

1,981,062

Games

well well, given the circumstances i change my prediction to november 5th

i was pretty sure that i did my prediction before.But since i can't find it.

My prediction is Dec 12

Here are the new budgets errors in days ( 2*sqrt(delta)):

mmKall for 2018-06-05 05:06:20.1: 26.46

Ypercube for 2018-08-16: 25.92

Carroll for  2019-02-08: 30.79

Purgency for 2018-11-05 on the 22nd of September : 13.27

The_Burglar for 2019-01-19 20:19:10: 25.53

Gamesorry for 2019-01-09 01:01:09 : 35.38

Kpato for 2018-12-12 on the 22nd of September: 18

2 new rule proposals:

First, people who specified only dates may either choose a time of day (sometime before September ends), or they will be assumed to have guessed noon on the day they selected.

Also, a clarification -- all times given in predictions are treated as being in the server time zone.

i choose 13:37

Did you forget the second rule proposal or was that the clarification? :p

Accepted, (rule and clarification), what is the server time zone ? :p

Btw Bill for dimensional analysis is your constant 2 also in square(day) ?

I mean square root or [T]^1/2

Server time zone is UTC-4 I think. Time in New York etc.

My prediction was standard (UTC and 00:00:00) although it doesn't matter much since it has already gone.

15K to go

Yes, I suppose the constant was 2 \sqrt(Day).

And, yes, the clarification was the second rule proposal.

12K to go

Looks like we will be there in early November.

10K now

7.5K  now.

7K34

7k34 (K is reserved for 1024)

@Burglar right, K may be confusing. It may mean 10^3 = 1000 or 2^10 = 1024. I should have clarified.

actually no, that shouldn't need to be clarified. absolutely not.