Championship predictions Hex, Havannah
17 replies. Last post: 20200303
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Force majeure at 20200115
Based on MonteCarlo simulation, below are top5 rated players and their theoretical chances to win the 23rd Havannah Championship (probability of win in each game is implied from the LG’s rating formula):70% eobllor11% 54668% Force Majeure6% Mirko Rahn2% Sol

Clark94 at 20200115
RE: Lorentz.
Im not sure if 5466 is human or not but I was able to defeat 5466 in the current amazons championship. 5466 does have the highest amazons rating by a big margin however.

fritzd at 20200116
5466 has been around much longer than the NN bots. I’m 99.9% sure he is very much human!

Force majeure at 20200221
Based on MonteCarlo simulation, below are top5 rated players and their theoretical chances to win the 2 Havannah Championship (probability of win in each game is implied from the LG’s rating formula):
Daniel Sepczuk 2443 37.4Arek Kulczycki 2436 37.0lazyplayer 2358 18.6Force majeure 2244 03.9Frode Lillevold 2205 02.0 
Force majeure at 20200221
Based on MonteCarlo simulation, below are top5 rated players and their theoretical chances to win the 2 Havannah Championship (probability of win in each game is implied from the LG’s rating formula):
 Daniel Sepczuk 2443 37.4
 Arek Kulczycki 2436 37.0
 lazyplayer 2358 18.6
 Force majeure 2244 03.9
 Frode Lillevold 2205 02.0

KPT at 20200223
So...basically , the better the ELO greater de chances to win...
Do you use an excel platform for doing this predictions? I’m trying to understand what is this all about. There is too much stuff in internet...about stocks, investing, horse racing. It is very confusing haha. 
Tasmanian Devil at 20200223
Your probability of winning any game is in theory 1 / (1 + 10^((your rating – opponent’s rating) / 400)). So, using your favorite programming language, you define all the matches within a tournament and generate the outcome at random using this formula. Do this thousands of times and count how many times each player won the tournament.

KPT at 20200223
I got it.
what would be the theory for a race competition?where every player is against everyone and not 1vs1
thanks

struggler at 20200223
Force majeure, I think your predictions concerned the hex championships (not havannah)?

Arek Kulczycki at 20200228
I will not be playing any Havannah soon haha!
Is there really a “400” in that equation???
Interesting :)

Carroll ★ at 20200303
It corresponds to a probability of 1/11 for a difference of 400 elo, or the reverse:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1%2F%281%2B10%5Ed%2F400%29

David J Bush ★ at 20200303
Heh Elo has been “improved” with Glicko, but the graph of rating difference to odds of winning remains about the same. Glicko is more complicated, assigning two numbers to each player: rating and ratings deviation or how accurate your rating is, based on how much you have been playing lately. Then there is Glicko2, which adds a 3rd value: volatility. It could be argued that the simplicity of Elo is preferable, especially with a relatively small group like us.
Arek you should definitely play more Havannah and more Twixt.