I wondered about the winning chances

in the top league of EWN Championship 4.

A friend checked and came up with the

following estimate:

Jonny: 50 + eps1 percent

Derob: 30 - eps2 percent

Hanfried: 20 + eps3 percent

What do others think?

Ingo.

Chances for fraggle_c ? Are they zero ?

Chances for a tie at the first place ?

I'm losing against derob and beating fraggle_c,

so i'm sorry for Ingo S. that fraggle_c cannot become champ this time.

@ypercube

In my opinion both is zero. My results:

eps1 ~ +1

eps2 ~ -5

eps3 ~ -6

meaning:

Jonny: 51%

Derob: 35%

hanfried_c: 14% (some moves earlier the 20% were more realistic but now derob will score to 2:2).

fraggle will lose against Theo, so he can't win the tournament.

If there is no one with more than 14 point Jonny will win.

If hanfried and derob will get 16 points, I will win.

If only derob gets 16 points he will win.

Some dramatical changings in the last 24h. 3 of 5 open games finished. And now we

have:

Derob: 48%

Jonny: 38%

hanfried: 14% (a few moves earlier I was even above Jonny.)

To become first:

- Hanfried has to win both games (against Derob and fraggle).

- Derob hat to win against hanfried

- And Jonny is the lucky third, if Derob loses and fraggle wins.

Just one game to play: Hanfried_c vs. derob.

Or looking at the whole championship:

JONNY vs DEROB.

I'm out of the race. The last moves against fraggle were verry thrilling. We didn't fight each other, the dice fought us. Hanfried's chances ranged from 10+x to 67% in the last 10 moves.

Btw. Who (besides fraggle) can find hanfried's mistake in the last game of the match?

Hanfried asked:

> Who (besides fraggle) can find hanfried's

> mistake in the last game of the match?

For me (without any computer help) move 83:

1/b5-b4 looks most suspicious. I would have

preferred the northern route for the “2”,

with 1/b5-c5.

http://www.littlegolem.net/jsp/game/game.jsp?gid=796981&nmove=82

Cheers, Ingo

RoRoRo thinks that the following moves were suboptimal:

72: fraggle did c1-b2 not c1-c2

76: fraggle did e3-d4 not e3-d3

But he agrees with every other move made in the final frame, in particular every single one of hanfried's, and that after move 92, hanfried's chances of winning were 67.02%

Well, i think the first move of hanfried was a mistake: 3/b5 to b4. Better 3/b5 to c4. So he had more chances to make his defensiv stronger.

Labelling the grid A-E, F-…, U-Y, as RoRoRo does, at various different recursion depths he prefers b5-b4 to b5-c4. I can see some merit in b5-c4, but I can't argue with the numbers…

phil@made:golem$ ../../games/EinStein/esbot.p3 -5 b 3 CABGFK XQSTOYmoveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,5) BH = 0.00358moveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,5) BC = -0.18761moveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,5) BG = 0.21515Selected=BG Score=0.21515phil@made:golem$ ../../games/EinStein/esbot.p3 -6 b 3 CABGFK XQSTOYmoveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,6) BH = -0.33504moveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,6) BC = -0.57624moveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,6) BG = 0.00246Selected=BG Score=0.00246phil@made:golem$ ../../games/EinStein/esbot.p3 -7 b 3 CABGFK XQSTOYmoveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,7) BH = -0.24960moveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,7) BC = -0.54949moveBlueEval(CABGFK,XQSTOY,7) BG = 0.10135Selected=BG Score=0.10135

(Score=+12=>blue wins, -12=>red wins)

The 4th championship (league 1) is over.

My congratulations to derob, Jonny and fraggle_c on the first three ranks.

In the last game once again the dice decided who wins and who lose.

But I have to mention that the move 70./5-e1-e2 was really smart and probably saved derob the game.