Hypothetical question Einstein forum

13 replies. Last post: 2020-05-01

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Hypothetical question
  • Force majeure at 2020-04-23

    In the course of creating my EwN bot, I’ve come up with interesting question. Let’s assume, that two equally skilled players face each other, BUT one of them always knows what will be the outcome of the next dice roll. What is your estimation, regarding impact of such knowledge on the overall winrate between those players?

  • Florian Jamain at 2020-04-23

    Will depends on the number of points you need to win.

    In a 50 points game, I guess if you play thousand games, the bot who knows gonna always win.

  • KPT ★ at 2020-04-23

    it’s a BIG handicap. I think it will give a tremendous advantage to the players who knows. 

  • Carroll ★ at 2020-04-23

    I’m not sure it gives a huge advantage, as there are bad rolls and good ones, I prefer to have good ones instead of knowing.

    Say one player can chose his next dice roll, and the other just knows what it will be in advance, like if you say “I will get a one” in plain voice, and have it, the other player knows but rolls his dice. Who will win?

    If you have done simulations with your bot I’m interested in the results.

  • KPT ★ at 2020-04-23

    Sometimes you made a very risky move and you wait for getting lucky. IF you know that u are not gonna be lucky, u prevent to play aggressive. 

  • Force majeure at 2020-04-24

    What I meant was win in a single game.

  • Florian Jamain at 2020-04-24

    In a single game I don’t expect a “huge” advantage.

  • Carroll ★ at 2020-04-24

    impact of such knowledge on the overall winrate between those players?

    you need many games to estimate strength difference ?

  • Florian Jamain at 2020-04-24

    Many games, but many “one point” games, it is what he means cause I asked for it.

  • Force majeure at 2020-04-24

    Florian, probability to win n-game match game can be implied from probability of winning a 1-game match, therefore in my opinion question regarding match length is irrelevant.

  • Florian Jamain at 2020-04-25

    Precisely, this is exactly the reason of the question :D

  • William Fraser at 2020-05-01

    I bet it’s at least 60%, but not as high as 90%.  

  • TsarBomba at 2020-05-01

    Guesses                                                     both players same alternate start                   50%

    Advantage only if pieces are about to cross maybe 2 in 20 moves                        x 0.1

    other player has maybe 2 good choices maybe 90% of time (10% limited)         x 0.1

    so maybe 50.5% - 49.5%

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