Here is a math video from 3blue1brown about Covid 19 risk of spreading that I liked.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

The main figure to remember is “the difference between a country with 64 cases and 6400 is one month” (x10 every 16 days), and the moral is: "If people are sufficiently worried, there’s much less to worry about, but if no one is worried, that’s when you should worry."

+1   Ingo.

my quack spreadsheet predicts maximum death rate around end of may

but at 3 million deaths a day, seems a bit high !