New virus theories (end of the world add on) General forum
33 replies. Last post: 2022-01-08
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Harry Grafton at 2020-01-26
My theory on the Wuhan coronavirus and to generate more
1. Mix animals together in a stressful place, eg a farm market with butchers
2. Next cut and mix common viruses to make a new one (or lots of permutations)
3. Be in contract with potential hosts that can regenerate and spread it (humans)
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Harry Grafton at 2020-03-12
And if managing exposure to a new virus
would it be best to allow 20% to get it ?
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Harry Grafton at 2020-03-15
In the UK an expert has said that 60% should get it to prevent it from spreading, this fits a transmission rate of 2.5
Transmission rates in other countries may vary, have not found any data yet
1-(1/2.5) = 0.6
Transmission from body is via coughing, sneezing, talking, breathing (more so if lungs are uncomfortable)
Transfer is via hands, shared surfaces / air, (aeroplanes recycled air ?), food
Receive it eating, kissing, hand shaking, breathing
So don't travel to dine at a business meeting and talk
Do school children talk while eating?
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Harry Grafton at 2020-03-20
1918 virus data
suggests unborn babies will suffer and their children also, (maybe children of boys and children of daughters of girls)
It may mutate and have 3 waves
Maybe strong immunity if you catch it 3 times
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ypercube at 2020-03-20
Is this virus similar to the 1918 one?
That's the first time I hear something like that.
Also we have much more tools and research available since 100 years ago that I seriously doubt that the effects will be similar.
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Sighris at 2020-03-20
Also YperCube, we have antibiotics now, which do not directly affect virus infections but can cure infections which can come along as a side effect. More info here: https://www.cantonrep.com/news/20200315/coronavirus-pandemic-vs-spanish-flu–then-and-now
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Harry Grafton at 2020-03-21
new spreadsheet estimation (no allowance for real world)
2019-11-10 back calculated start date for 1 infection
daily reinfection attempt of 12% (fixed population of 7.7 billion, assume all will be infected)
mortality rate of 0.4% (of assumed infections)
2020-05-09 peak of 100 000 deaths a day
2020-06-30 deaths drop to 600 a day
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Harry Grafton at 2020-03-24
Be Vigilant (word from 1918 survivor), in the panic expect what was the unexpected
Biggest danger is rapid transit systems (spread it to more, faster, further distances)
Recommend that all mass travellers wear masks and gloves and only if body temperature is below 100 F
Also reduce speed limits rail and road (to reduce spread and for safety reasons)
Also use the coolest workers (body temperature is quick to measure)
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Harry Grafton at 2020-03-25
Assume the virus is multipartite and don't collect overlapping parts
Eg virus =abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz
You have abcdef on day 1-6
You get nopqrst for days 2-10
tuvwxyz days 4-9
Efghijklmn day 6-12
They reassemble full version which lasts for days 7-21
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Harry Grafton at 2020-03-27
Would like to see cryptocurrency creation switched to projects to solve the virus
such as folding@home
Maybe need government powers
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Harry Grafton at 2020-03-27
minimum safe distances from someone with head at same height (do tall people catch it later?)
breathing 1m
coughing 2m
talking 3m (at a guess, it depends on background noise and hearing)
sneezing 6m
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Carroll at 2020-03-28
Can you send evidence of what you say, instead of babling by yourself? ;)
Here is an interesting video on SIR simulation variants, maybe you can post your owns :
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Harry Grafton at 2020-04-01
There must be a film (or will be) which starts with a pandemic
And then when some countries reach breaking point and have to use military forces to help
World war 3 starts
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Harry Grafton at 2020-05-08
one thing I can't work out yet is does ACE2 (Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 {which comes from the X chromosome [so maybe faulty version due to stats that less women die from COVID19]})
convert sars-cov2 into another version of sars-cov2 but maybe in different quantities
and maybe further convert until the original is reproduced but in greater amounts
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Harry Grafton at 2020-05-15
Covid19 social age:- the higher it is the more your group should shield (maybe government adjusts a shielding age)
it is shared by all members in a connected group (usually a family) and is usually the adjusted age of oldest member
adjusted age is more like biological age (see biological-age.com)
add more years if:-
male
high blood pressure
diabetes
hepatitis
COPD
chronic kidney disease
get sick/infected often
fatigue/tiredness
bone/back pain
depression
impaired wound healing
bone loss
hair loss
muscle pain
have dark skin
elderly
overweight
don't eat much fish/dairy
live far from equator
always use sunscreen
stay indoors
spend too much time online reading stuff like this
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Harry Grafton at 2020-12-29
Traffic light idea (babbling)
Yellow:- been near/with someone with Red worn for 14 days
Red :- worn for 14 days if you have virus or suspect you have it
Green :- worn for first 49 days after wearing red, should still have recovery anti bodies, also 14 days after vaccine
Multiple greens:- one for each virus/vaccine recovery phase, maybe very safe if you have 4 or 5
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Harry Grafton at 2021-01-15
Slow the spreadReduce all road speed limits by 10 mph (also reduce accidents adding to health service pressures)Put more tax on road vehicle fuelsReduce speed of trains and increase fares, make all journeys booked via bank cardBan money, only allow bank cards to work within 20 miles of home or work place
Can't think of any more Orwellian rules yet
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Harry Grafton at 2021-03-19
New theory but no data
The virus is less deadly to first born's (number 1 children) which China has many
A way to reduce population size but keep generation sizes steady
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spartacu5 at 2021-03-21
The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3
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Oakmoss at 2021-03-28
I think I'm going to use that line and precede every non-sequitur statement I blurt out with “New theory but no data”.
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Harry Grafton at 2021-10-01
Latest theory
To test the Emergency use Vaccines quicker
Inject it into the blood stream, but make it random so it does not look like fast testing of side effects
Backup no need to Aspirate (draw back on needle, if blood, then in vein, try elsewhere) by referring to outdated 2004 WHO recommendation
The Emergency use Vaccine is an Intramuscular injection, which releases it a lot slower than if injected into vein
What is needed is a world vote (but what is best platform)
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Oakmoss at 2021-10-01
I think we could do the vote with a show of hands in VRChat. It'll give me the inspiration to finally learn how to rig a 3D model.
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mmKALLL ★ at 2021-10-04
“New theory but no data” or “no allowance for real world” makes these sound like random ideas. If the ideas are useful they might be worth telling to vaccine researchers, but I am skeptical about the Little Golem forum being the best way to contact said researchers :)
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Oakmoss at 2021-10-04
Little have we known that this whole time Little Golem has been borrowing our brain power to sequence viral genomes under the guise of abstract board games.
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Harry Grafton at 2021-10-07
The stiff neck theory :-
Usual cause, lymphatic system has to swell and strain unwanted cells into 'harmless pieces' (maybe)
The biggest cells it deals with are:-
Cancerous, more likely if older, male (only one X chromosome, maybe less immune able), smoker, overweight etc
Bacteria, too many dead cells from covid, bad hygiene, dirty masks!
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Harry Grafton at 2022-01-04
Next likely mutation theory:-
Original:- If worst in deep lungs can kill
Omicron:- If mainly upper airways = quicker to infect, spread and kills less
Next Maybe:- Throat would be quicker still, but might not spread if it stops people speaking (except maybe New York)