amzn.ch.30.1.1 predictions Amazons forum

27 replies. Last post: 2013-06-30

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amzn.ch.30.1.1 predictions
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-03-22

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    I’ve been requested to follow amzn.ch.30.1.1 by RoRoRo the Bot
    For info on how these predictions are calculated see my predictions web page .

    • Already completed matches:

    Games completed: 0/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 JJ10 2118 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 40.09% 1.72% 4.92%
    2 bennok 1837 _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 0.62% 0.12% 78.90%
    3 celticjim 1852 _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 0.80% 0.12% 75.35%
    4 Arrow2_bot 1855 _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 0.71% 0.14% 74.81%
    5 Orbilin 1877 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 1.17% 0.23% 68.72%
    6 p_a_k_o 1957 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 0 0 5.40% 0.65% 40.90%
    7 cutecat 1976 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 0 0 7.09% 0.80% 34.54%
    8 mungo 1982 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 0 0 7.82% 0.79% 32.48%
    9 Kisoul 2098 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 0 0 32.87% 1.69% 7.72%
    10 FatPhil 1833 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 0 0 0.48% 0.10% 81.64%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-03-27

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • Arrow2_bot 2 – 0 Kisoul <-— major upset!

    Games completed: 1/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1880 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 4.38% 0.65% 45.99%
    2 FatPhil 1833 _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 0.68% 0.14% 82.00%
    3 JJ10 2118 _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 47.91% 2.08% 5.70%
    4 mungo 1982 _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 9.49% 0.97% 33.72%
    5 cutecat 1976 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 8.81% 0.97% 36.08%
    6 p_a_k_o 1957 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 0 0 6.73% 0.80% 42.55%
    7 Orbilin 1877 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 0 0 1.55% 0.25% 71.87%
    8 celticjim 1857 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 0 0 1.10% 0.23% 77.36%
    9 bennok 1837 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 0 0 0.71% 0.14% 82.40%
    10 Kisoul 2073 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 0 0 15.01% 1.41% 22.34%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-02

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • mungo 2 – 0 Kisoul

    Games completed: 2/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 mungo 2002 - _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 0 21.64% 1.72% 13.70%
    2 Arrow2_bot 1880 _ - 2 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 0 4.03% 0.57% 48.37%
    3 Kisoul 2053 0 0 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 3.63% 0.72% 40.64%
    4 cutecat 1976 _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 8.97% 0.90% 35.45%
    5 p_a_k_o 1957 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 6.84% 0.78% 42.40%
    6 Orbilin 1877 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 0 0 1.64% 0.27% 70.81%
    7 bennok 1837 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 0 0 0.66% 0.12% 81.98%
    8 FatPhil 1833 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 0 0 0.68% 0.13% 82.74%
    9 celticjim 1857 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 0 0 1.10% 0.20% 77.55%
    10 JJ10 2118 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 0 0 47.24% 2.09% 6.37%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-03

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • Kisoul 0 – 2 celticjim <-— upset!

    Games completed: 3/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1880 - _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 0 3.87% 0.56% 49.84%
    2 celticjim 1881 _ - _ _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 0 3.77% 0.52% 49.76%
    3 mungo 2002 _ _ - _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 0 20.77% 1.40% 15.53%
    4 bennok 1837 _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 0.76% 0.13% 79.96%
    5 Kisoul 2029 0 0 0 _ - _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 0.44% 0.20% 69.23%
    6 cutecat 1976 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 0 0 9.27% 0.93% 35.34%
    7 p_a_k_o 1957 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 0 0 6.81% 0.82% 41.81%
    8 Orbilin 1877 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 0 0 1.78% 0.26% 70.39%
    9 JJ10 2118 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 0 0 48.54% 2.02% 5.91%
    10 FatPhil 1833 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 0 0 0.69% 0.13% 82.23%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-09

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • FatPhil 0 – 2 Arrow2_bot

    Games completed: 4/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1893 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 2 4 0 6.13% 0.89% 35.46%
    2 mungo 2002 _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 20.35% 1.56% 14.80%
    3 celticjim 1864 _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 2.84% 0.46% 55.75%
    4 bennok 1837 _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 0.74% 0.17% 80.42%
    5 cutecat 1976 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ 0 0 9.07% 0.94% 34.49%
    6 p_a_k_o 1957 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 0 0 6.96% 0.76% 40.99%
    7 Orbilin 1877 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 0 0 1.73% 0.33% 69.74%
    8 JJ10 2118 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 0 0 48.15% 2.05% 5.85%
    9 FatPhil 1820 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 0 0 0.20% 0.05% 91.06%
    10 Kisoul 2029 0 0 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ - 0 0 0.34% 0.18% 71.45%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • JJ10 at 2013-04-12

    Good luck to everyone playing in the championship. I don’t have as much time as I thought I would have so I am going to resign my games.
  • FatPhil at 2013-04-12

    That’s a shame. Thanks for being fair and equal about it.
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-12

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • JJ10 0 – 2 bennok
    • bennok 0 – 2 Kisoul
    • JJ10 0 – 2 Arrow2_bot
    • cutecat 2 – 0 JJ10
    • Kisoul 2 – 0 JJ10
    • FatPhil 2 – 0 JJ10
    • JJ10 0 – 2 p_a_k_o
    • JJ10 0 – 2 mungo
    • Orbilin 2 – 0 JJ10
    • celticjim 2 – 0 JJ10

    Games completed: 14/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1911 - _ _ 2 _ _ _ _ 2 2 6 12 14.37% 1.60% 21.71%
    2 mungo 2013 _ - _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 4 8 35.30% 2.32% 9.09%
    3 celticjim 1914 _ _ - 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 4 8 11.40% 1.36% 29.89%
    4 Kisoul 2056 0 0 0 - _ _ _ 2 _ 2 4 4 0.22% 0.29% 52.11%
    5 Orbilin 1891 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 3.81% 0.68% 58.74%
    6 p_a_k_o 1975 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 13.51% 1.50% 31.22%
    7 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 15.43% 1.60% 28.99%
    8 bennok 1847 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 1.18% 0.28% 78.75%
    9 FatPhil 1814 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0.32% 0.12% 89.49%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • mungo at 2013-04-12

    Sad to see the reigning champion resign all games. Hope you will be back for the next championship!
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-18

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • mungo 2 – 0 Arrow2_bot

    Games completed: 15/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 mungo 2024 - 2 _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 20 48.47% 2.56% 3.45%
    2 Arrow2_bot 1900 0 - _ 2 _ _ _ _ 2 2 6 12 4.58% 0.88% 32.07%
    3 celticjim 1914 _ _ - 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 4 8 10.39% 1.19% 29.29%
    4 Kisoul 2056 0 0 0 - _ _ _ 2 _ 2 4 4 0.20% 0.26% 51.46%
    5 Orbilin 1891 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 3.75% 0.60% 58.19%
    6 p_a_k_o 1975 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 12.60% 1.37% 30.62%
    7 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 14.59% 1.46% 28.16%
    8 bennok 1847 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 1.04% 0.24% 78.56%
    9 FatPhil 1820 _ 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0.37% 0.14% 88.19%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-20

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • Arrow2_bot 2 – 0 Orbilin

    Games completed: 16/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1915 - 0 _ 2 2 _ _ _ 2 2 8 16 8.31% 1.26% 14.97%
    2 mungo 2024 2 - _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 24 50.11% 2.48% 2.84%
    3 celticjim 1893 _ _ - 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 4 8 7.84% 0.98% 33.90%
    4 Kisoul 2056 0 0 0 - _ _ 2 _ _ 2 4 4 0.11% 0.17% 51.39%
    5 Orbilin 1876 0 _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 0.99% 0.26% 75.34%
    6 p_a_k_o 1975 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 12.94% 1.36% 29.20%
    7 bennok 1847 _ _ _ 0 _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 1.04% 0.25% 77.21%
    8 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 14.59% 1.55% 27.29%
    9 FatPhil 1820 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0.25% 0.08% 87.85%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-25

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • p_a_k_o 0 – 2 Arrow2_bot

    Games completed: 17/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1933 - 0 _ 2 _ 2 _ 2 2 2 10 20 18.12% 2.03% 2.31%
    2 mungo 2024 2 - _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 28 52.15% 2.52% 2.06%
    3 celticjim 1878 _ _ - 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 4 8 6.51% 0.91% 35.44%
    4 Kisoul 2056 0 0 0 - _ _ 2 _ _ 2 4 4 0.04% 0.10% 49.76%
    5 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 14.56% 1.40% 24.17%
    6 FatPhil 1820 0 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 0.21% 0.09% 86.14%
    7 bennok 1847 _ _ _ 0 _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 1.12% 0.26% 75.56%
    8 Orbilin 1876 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0.58% 0.26% 74.69%
    9 p_a_k_o 1957 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 2.87% 0.80% 49.87%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-26

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • bennok 0 – 2 celticjim

    Games completed: 18/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1933 - 0 _ 2 _ 2 _ 2 2 2 10 20 17.38% 2.00% 1.79%
    2 mungo 2024 2 - _ 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 28 50.63% 2.42% 2.11%
    3 celticjim 1892 _ _ - 2 _ _ 2 _ _ 2 6 12 10.35% 1.22% 21.07%
    4 Kisoul 2056 0 0 0 - _ _ 2 _ _ 2 4 4 0.02% 0.06% 52.85%
    5 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 14.08% 1.32% 23.61%
    6 Orbilin 1876 0 _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 0.60% 0.18% 74.20%
    7 bennok 1833 _ _ 0 0 _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 0.18% 0.06% 88.50%
    8 FatPhil 1820 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0.18% 0.09% 86.35%
    9 p_a_k_o 1957 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 2.87% 0.76% 49.52%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-04-28

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • celticjim 2 – 0 p_a_k_o

    Games completed: 19/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1933 - _ 0 2 2 _ 2 _ 2 2 10 20 15.32% 1.45% 1.77%
    2 celticjim 1910 _ - _ 2 2 _ _ 2 _ 2 8 16 19.26% 1.57% 6.46%
    3 mungo 2024 2 _ - 2 _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 28 48.08% 2.16% 1.79%
    4 Kisoul 2056 0 0 0 - _ _ _ 2 _ 2 4 4 0.01% 0.01% 50.09%
    5 p_a_k_o 1939 0 0 _ _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 0.15% 0.11% 71.07%
    6 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 13.12% 1.30% 22.17%
    7 FatPhil 1820 0 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 0.17% 0.11% 85.22%
    8 bennok 1833 _ 0 _ 0 _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0.11% 0.05% 88.14%
    9 Orbilin 1876 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0.65% 0.18% 73.29%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-07

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • Orbilin 0 – 2 celticjim
    • p_a_k_o 0 – 2 Kisoul
    • Arrow2_bot 2 – 0 bennok
    • Kisoul 2 – 0 FatPhil

    Games completed: 23/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1944 - _ 2 0 2 2 2 _ 2 2 12 32 18.89% 1.32% 0.05%
    2 celticjim 1905 _ - 2 _ 2 2 2 _ _ 2 10 28 21.13% 1.68% 1.26%
    3 Kisoul 2072 0 0 - 0 2 _ 2 _ 2 2 8 12 0 0.00% 21.98%
    4 mungo 2024 2 _ 2 - _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 40 45.75% 1.73% 1.27%
    5 bennok 1822 0 0 0 _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 0 0 95.14%
    6 Orbilin 1861 0 0 _ _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 0.01% 0.01% 86.85%
    7 p_a_k_o 1929 0 0 0 _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 0 0 83.48%
    8 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 11.75% 1.15% 19.72%
    9 FatPhil 1814 0 _ 0 _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0.03% 0.02% 90.25%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-09

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • celticjim 0 – 2 Arrow2_bot

    Games completed: 24/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1958 - 2 2 0 2 _ 2 2 2 2 14 52 34.35% 1.85% 0
    2 celticjim 1894 0 - 2 _ 2 _ 2 2 _ 2 10 28 4.78% 1.63% 2.56%
    3 Kisoul 2072 0 0 - 0 2 _ _ 2 2 2 8 12 0 0 21.49%
    4 mungo 2024 2 _ 2 - _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 44 46.23% 1.87% 1.22%
    5 p_a_k_o 1929 0 0 0 _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 0 0 83.05%
    6 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 12.08% 0.97% 19.04%
    7 Orbilin 1861 0 0 _ _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 0 0.01% 87.18%
    8 bennok 1822 0 0 0 _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0 0 95.63%
    9 FatPhil 1814 0 _ 0 _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0.01% 0.02% 89.81%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-12

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • Kisoul 2 – 0 Orbilin

    Games completed: 25/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1958 - 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 _ 2 14 56 33.57% 1.97% 0
    2 celticjim 1899 0 - 2 _ _ 2 2 2 _ 2 10 32 5.06% 1.74% 2.38%
    3 Kisoul 2079 0 0 - 0 2 2 2 2 _ 2 10 16 0 0 13.05%
    4 mungo 2024 2 _ 2 - _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 48 46.81% 1.92% 1.15%
    5 FatPhil 1814 0 _ 0 _ - _ _ _ _ 2 2 0 0.00% 0.01% 89.88%
    6 bennok 1822 0 0 0 _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 0 0 95.65%
    7 Orbilin 1854 0 0 0 _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 0 0 93.45%
    8 p_a_k_o 1929 0 0 0 _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0 0 84.37%
    9 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 11.97% 0.96% 20.07%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-14

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • Orbilin 0 – 2 p_a_k_o

    Games completed: 26/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1958 - 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 _ 2 14 60 33.00% 1.71% 0
    2 celticjim 1861 0 - 2 _ 2 _ 2 2 _ 2 10 36 3.60% 1.37% 3.36%
    3 Kisoul 2079 0 0 - 0 2 2 2 2 _ 2 10 20 0 0 14.92%
    4 mungo 2024 2 _ 2 - _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 48 48.51% 1.72% 1.13%
    5 p_a_k_o 1941 0 0 0 _ - _ _ 2 _ 2 4 4 0 0 75.80%
    6 FatPhil 1814 0 _ 0 _ _ - _ _ _ 2 2 0 0.00% 0.01% 89.86%
    7 bennok 1822 0 0 0 _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 0 0 96.18%
    8 Orbilin 1842 0 0 0 _ 0 _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0 0 98.16%
    9 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 12.53% 1.02% 20.59%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-17

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • bennok 2 – 0 Orbilin

    Games completed: 27/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1958 - 2 2 0 2 2 _ 2 2 2 14 64 33.26% 1.83% 0
    2 celticjim 1861 0 - 2 _ 2 2 _ _ 2 2 10 40 3.58% 1.49% 3.47%
    3 Kisoul 2079 0 0 - 0 2 2 _ 2 2 2 10 24 0 0 15.72%
    4 mungo 2024 2 _ 2 - _ _ _ _ _ 2 6 48 48.42% 1.73% 1.21%
    5 bennok 1838 0 0 0 _ - _ _ _ 2 2 4 4 0 0 91.64%
    6 p_a_k_o 1941 0 0 0 _ _ - _ _ 2 2 4 4 0 0 77.38%
    7 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 12.31% 0.99% 20.57%
    8 FatPhil 1814 0 _ 0 _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0.01% 0.03% 90.24%
    9 Orbilin 1826 0 0 0 _ 0 0 _ _ - 2 2 0 0 0 99.76%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-23

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • FatPhil 0 – 2 mungo

    Games completed: 28/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1958 - 2 2 0 2 2 2 _ 2 2 14 64 25.35% 1.49% 0
    2 celticjim 1817 0 - 2 _ 2 2 _ _ 2 2 10 40 2.38% 1.04% 2.73%
    3 Kisoul 2079 0 0 - 0 2 2 2 _ 2 2 10 24 0 0 15.28%
    4 mungo 2031 2 _ 2 - _ _ 2 _ _ 2 8 52 58.39% 1.56% 0.31%
    5 bennok 1838 0 0 0 _ - _ _ _ 2 2 4 4 0 0 91.64%
    6 p_a_k_o 1941 0 0 0 _ _ - _ _ 2 2 4 4 0 0 76.46%
    7 FatPhil 1807 0 _ 0 0 _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 0 0 94.87%
    8 cutecat 1985 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 11.87% 0.96% 18.97%
    9 Orbilin 1826 0 0 0 _ 0 0 _ _ - 2 2 0 0 0 99.73%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-26

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • Arrow2_bot 2 – 0 cutecat

    Games completed: 29/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1975 - 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 16 68 46.56% 1.20% 0
    2 celticjim 1806 0 - 2 _ 2 2 2 _ _ 2 10 40 0 0.67% 1.33%
    3 Kisoul 2079 0 0 - 0 2 2 2 _ 2 2 10 24 0 0 11.67%
    4 mungo 2031 2 _ 2 - _ _ _ _ 2 2 8 56 52.24% 1.20% 0.27%
    5 p_a_k_o 1941 0 0 0 _ - _ 2 _ _ 2 4 4 0 0 70.70%
    6 bennok 1838 0 0 0 _ _ - 2 _ _ 2 4 4 0 0 89.54%
    7 Orbilin 1826 0 0 0 _ 0 0 - _ _ 2 2 0 0 0 99.47%
    8 cutecat 1968 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0 0.53% 33.75%
    9 FatPhil 1807 0 _ 0 0 _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0 0 93.27%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-29

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • FatPhil 0 – 2 p_a_k_o

    Games completed: 30/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1975 - 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 16 72 48.19% 1.38% 0
    2 celticjim 1831 0 - 2 _ 2 2 _ 2 _ 2 10 44 0 0.89% 0.77%
    3 Kisoul 2079 0 0 - 0 2 2 _ 2 2 2 10 28 0 0 13.47%
    4 mungo 2031 2 _ 2 - _ _ _ _ 2 2 8 56 50.43% 1.38% 0.31%
    5 p_a_k_o 1951 0 0 0 _ - _ _ 2 2 2 6 8 0 0 61.84%
    6 bennok 1838 0 0 0 _ _ - _ 2 _ 2 4 4 0 0 90.07%
    7 cutecat 1968 0 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ 2 2 0 0 0.49% 36.09%
    8 Orbilin 1826 0 0 0 _ 0 0 _ - _ 2 2 0 0 0 99.56%
    9 FatPhil 1797 0 _ 0 0 0 _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0 0 97.89%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2013-05-30

    Tournament: amzn.ch.30.1.1
    Newly completed matches:

    • mungo 0 – 2 p_a_k_o
    • Orbilin 2 – 0 mungo <-— upset!

    Games completed: 32/45

    N Player Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score Son p(win) p(draw) p(down)
    1 Arrow2_bot 1975 - 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 16 80 100% 0 0
    2 celticjim 1831 0 - 2 _ 2 2 2 _ _ 2 10 52 0 0 1.04%
    3 Kisoul 2079 0 0 - 0 2 2 2 2 _ 2 10 36 0 0 19.95%
    4 mungo 1989 2 _ 2 - 0 0 _ 2 _ 2 8 56 0 0 4.19%
    5 p_a_k_o 1970 0 0 0 2 - 2 _ 2 _ 2 8 28 0 0 35.16%
    6 Orbilin 1849 0 0 0 2 0 - 0 _ _ 2 4 16 0 0 100%
    7 bennok 1838 0 0 0 _ _ 2 - _ _ 2 4 8 0 0 93.64%
    8 FatPhil 1797 0 _ 0 0 0 _ _ - _ 2 2 0 0 0 99.33%
    9 cutecat 1968 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 2 2 0 0 0 46.69%
    10 JJ10 1820 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 100%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-10 and thus being demoted
  • mungo at 2013-05-31

    Congratulations to the robot! It probably doesn’t care...
  • Martin Mueller at 2013-06-04

    The program does not care, but as one of the authors I am happy with most of the games. It does not feel like a real win though, since Arrow also had a completely lost game against JJ10 when he dropped out.

    I will try to analyze some of the games and put that analysis on my web page later in the summer.

    How do people feel about future tournaments? Should I retire Arrow2_bot and let it play only friendly games, or should I keep entering it?

    Martin
  • mungo at 2013-06-04

    I wouldn’t mind if it entered the next championship. If it wins the next one also, I might change my mind...
  • darse at 2013-06-30

    Congratulations, Martin et al.!

    This is another major triumph for the UCT algorithm. Amazons has a branching factor of around 2000, along with a number of subtleties, making the game practically hopeless for other algorithms, like the traditional fixed-depth Alpha-Beta search used in chess.

    But even with a breakthrough algorithm, it takes a lot of hard work to build a program like Arrow2. If i was a serious Amazons player, i’d consider having it as a ready opponent to be a treasure.
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