My theory on the Wuhan coronavirus and to generate more

1. Mix animals together in a stressful place, eg a farm market with butchers

2. Next cut and mix common viruses to make a new one (or lots of permutations)

3. Be in contract with potential hosts that can regenerate and spread it (humans)

And if managing exposure to a new virus

would it be best to allow 20% to get it ?

In the UK an expert has said that 60% should get it to prevent it from spreading, this fits a transmission rate of 2.5

Transmission rates in other countries may vary, have not found any data yet

1-(1/2.5) = 0.6

Transmission from body is via coughing, sneezing, talking, breathing (more so if lungs are uncomfortable)

Transfer is via hands, shared surfaces / air, (aeroplanes recycled air ?), food

Receive it eating, kissing, hand shaking, breathing

So don't travel to dine at a business meeting and talk

Do school children talk while eating?

1918 virus data

suggests unborn babies will suffer and their children also, (maybe children of boys and children of daughters of girls)

It may mutate and have 3 waves

Maybe strong immunity if you catch it 3 times

Is this virus similar to the 1918 one?

That's the first time I hear something like that.

Also we have much more tools and research available since 100 years ago that I seriously doubt that the effects will be similar.

Also YperCube, we have antibiotics now, which do not directly affect virus infections but can cure infections which can come along as a side effect.  More info here: https://www.cantonrep.com/news/20200315/coronavirus-pandemic-vs-spanish-flu–then-and-now

new spreadsheet estimation (no allowance for real world)

2019-11-10 back calculated start date for 1 infection

daily reinfection attempt of 12% (fixed population of 7.7 billion, assume all will be infected)

mortality rate of 0.4% (of assumed infections)

2020-05-09 peak of 100 000 deaths a day

2020-06-30 deaths drop to 600 a day

Be Vigilant (word from 1918 survivor), in the panic expect what was the unexpected

Biggest danger is rapid transit systems (spread it to more, faster, further distances)

Recommend that all mass travellers wear masks and gloves and only if body temperature is below 100 F

Also reduce speed limits rail and road (to reduce spread and for safety reasons)

Also use the coolest workers (body temperature is quick to measure)

Assume the virus is multipartite and don't collect overlapping parts

Eg virus =abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz

You have abcdef on day 1-6

You get nopqrst for days 2-10

tuvwxyz days 4-9

Efghijklmn day 6-12

They reassemble full version which lasts for days 7-21

Two versions 30% s-type and 70% s-type

S-type and l-type (the worse one)

Would like to see cryptocurrency creation switched to projects to solve the virus

such as folding@home

Maybe need government powers

minimum safe distances from someone with head at same height (do tall people catch it later?)

breathing    1m

coughing    2m

talking        3m (at a guess, it depends on background noise and hearing)

sneezing    6m

Can you send evidence of what you say, instead of babling by yourself? ;)

Here is an interesting video on SIR simulation variants, maybe you can post your owns :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs by 3b1b

Babbling not babling

There must be a film (or will be) which starts with a pandemic

And then when some countries reach breaking point and have to use military forces to help

World war 3 starts

one thing I can't work out yet is does ACE2 (Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 {which comes from the X chromosome [so maybe faulty version due to stats that less women die from COVID19]})

convert sars-cov2 into another version of sars-cov2 but maybe in different quantities

and maybe further convert until the original is reproduced but in greater amounts

Covid19 social age:- the higher it is the more your group should shield (maybe government adjusts a shielding age)

it is shared by all members in a connected group (usually a family) and is usually the adjusted age of oldest member

adjusted age is more like biological age (see biological-age.com)

add more years if:-

male

high blood pressure

diabetes

hepatitis

COPD

chronic kidney disease

get sick/infected often

fatigue/tiredness

bone/back pain

depression

impaired wound healing

bone loss

hair loss

muscle pain

have dark skin

elderly

overweight

don't eat much fish/dairy

live far from equator

always use sunscreen

stay indoors

 spend too much time online reading stuff like this

Renamed covid19 shielding age

Traffic light idea (babbling)

Yellow:- been near/with someone with Red worn for 14 days

Red :- worn for 14 days if you have virus or suspect you have it

Green :- worn for first 49 days after wearing red, should still have recovery anti bodies, also 14 days after vaccine

Multiple greens:- one for each virus/vaccine recovery phase, maybe very safe if you have 4 or 5

Slow the spreadReduce all road speed limits by 10 mph (also reduce accidents adding to health service pressures)Put more tax on road vehicle fuelsReduce speed of trains and increase fares, make all journeys booked via bank cardBan money, only allow bank cards to work within 20 miles of home or work place

Can't think of any more Orwellian rules yet

New theory but no data

The virus is less deadly to first born's (number 1 children) which China has many

A way to reduce population size but keep generation sizes steady

The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3

I think I'm going to use that line and precede every non-sequitur statement I blurt out with “New theory but no data”.

Green card to last 4 months after having virus or vaccine

Latest theory

To test the Emergency use Vaccines quicker

Inject it into the blood stream, but make it random so it does not look like fast testing of side effects

Backup no need to Aspirate (draw back on needle, if blood, then in vein, try elsewhere) by referring to outdated 2004 WHO recommendation

The Emergency use Vaccine is an Intramuscular injection, which releases it a lot slower than if injected into vein

What is needed is a world vote (but what is best platform)

I think we could do the vote with a show of hands in VRChat. It'll give me the inspiration to finally learn how to rig a 3D model.

Who is sad ?
XKCD

“New theory but no data” or “no allowance for real world” makes these sound like random ideas. If the ideas are useful they might be worth telling to vaccine researchers, but I am skeptical about the Little Golem forum being the best way to contact said researchers :)

Little have we known that this whole time Little Golem has been borrowing our brain power to sequence viral genomes under the guise of abstract board games.

The stiff neck theory :-

Usual cause, lymphatic system has to swell and strain unwanted cells into 'harmless pieces' (maybe)

The biggest cells it deals with are:-

1. Cancerous, more likely if older, male (only one X chromosome, maybe less immune able), smoker, overweight etc

2. Bacteria, too many dead cells from covid, bad hygiene, dirty masks!

Next likely mutation theory:-

Original:- If worst in deep lungs can kill

Omicron:- If mainly upper airways = quicker to infect, spread and kills less

Next Maybe:- Throat would be quicker still, but might not spread if it stops people speaking (except maybe New York)

Omega will infect just the lips and spread only by smooches.