New virus theories (end of the world add on) General forum

19 replies. Last post: 2020-05-16

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New virus theories (end of the world add on)
  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-01-26

    My theory on the Wuhan coronavirus and to generate more

    1. Mix animals together in a stressful place, eg a farm market with butchers

    2. Next cut and mix common viruses to make a new one (or lots of permutations)

    3. Be in contract with potential hosts that can regenerate and spread it (humans)

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-12

    And if managing exposure to a new virus

    would it be best to allow 20% to get it ?

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-15

    In the UK an expert has said that 60% should get it to prevent it from spreading, this fits a transmission rate of 2.5

    Transmission rates in other countries may vary, have not found any data yet

    1-(1/2.5) = 0.6

    Transmission from body is via coughing, sneezing, talking, breathing (more so if lungs are uncomfortable)

    Transfer is via hands, shared surfaces / air, (aeroplanes recycled air ?), food

    Receive it eating, kissing, hand shaking, breathing

    So don’t travel to dine at a business meeting and talk

    Do school children talk while eating?

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-20

    1918 virus data

    suggests unborn babies will suffer and their children also, (maybe children of boys and children of daughters of girls)

    It may mutate and have 3 waves

    Maybe strong immunity if you catch it 3 times

  • ypercube at 2020-03-20

    Is this virus similar to the 1918 one?

    That’s the first time I hear something like that. 

    Also we have much more tools and research available since 100 years ago that I seriously doubt that the effects will be similar. 

  • Sighris at 2020-03-20

    Also YperCube, we have antibiotics now, which do not directly affect virus infections but can cure infections which can come along as a side effect.  More info here: https://www.cantonrep.com/news/20200315/coronavirus-pandemic-vs-spanish-flu--then-and-now 


     

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-21

    new spreadsheet estimation (no allowance for real world)

    2019-11-10 back calculated start date for 1 infection

    daily reinfection attempt of 12% (fixed population of 7.7 billion, assume all will be infected)

    mortality rate of 0.4% (of assumed infections)

    2020-05-09 peak of 100 000 deaths a day

    2020-06-30 deaths drop to 600 a day


  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-24

    Be Vigilant (word from 1918 survivor), in the panic expect what was the unexpected

    Biggest danger is rapid transit systems (spread it to more, faster, further distances)

    Recommend that all mass travellers wear masks and gloves and only if body temperature is below 100 F

    Also reduce speed limits rail and road (to reduce spread and for safety reasons)

    Also use the coolest workers (body temperature is quick to measure)

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-25

    Assume the virus is multipartite and don’t collect overlapping parts

    Eg virus =abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz

    You have abcdef on day 1-6

    You get nopqrst for days 2-10

    tuvwxyz days 4-9

    Efghijklmn day 6-12

    They reassemble full version which lasts for days 7-21

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-25

    Two versions 30% s-type and 70% s-type

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-25

    S-type and l-type (the worse one)

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-27

    Would like to see cryptocurrency creation switched to projects to solve the virus

    such as folding@home

    Maybe need government powers

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-27

    minimum safe distances from someone with head at same height (do tall people catch it later?)

    breathing    1m

    coughing    2m

    talking        3m (at a guess, it depends on background noise and hearing)

    sneezing    6m

  • Carroll ★ at 2020-03-28

    Can you send evidence of what you say, instead of babling by yourself? ;)

    Here is an interesting video on SIR simulation variants, maybe you can post your owns :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs by 3b1b

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-03-28

    Babbling not babling

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-04-01

    There must be a film (or will be) which starts with a pandemic

    And then when some countries reach breaking point and have to use military forces to help

    World war 3 starts

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-05-08

    one thing I can’t work out yet is does ACE2 (Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 {which comes from the X chromosome [so maybe faulty version due to stats that less women die from COVID19]})

    convert sars-cov2 into another version of sars-cov2 but maybe in different quantities

    and maybe further convert until the original is reproduced but in greater amounts

  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-05-15

    Covid19 social age:- the higher it is the more your group should shield (maybe government adjusts a shielding age)

    it is shared by all members in a connected group (usually a family) and is usually the adjusted age of oldest member

    adjusted age is more like biological age (see biological-age.com)

    add more years if:-

    male
    high blood pressure
    diabetes
    hepatitis
    COPD
    chronic kidney disease
    get sick/infected often
    fatigue/tiredness
    bone/back pain
    depression
    impaired wound healing
    bone loss
    hair loss
    muscle pain
    have dark skin
    elderly
    overweight
    don’t eat much fish/dairy
    live far from equator
    always use sunscreen
    stay indoors
     spend too much time online reading stuff like this


  • The End of the Beginning at 2020-05-16

    Renamed covid19 shielding age

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